基于震害预测的动态震害矩阵方法研究  

Study on Method of Dynamic Earthquake Damage Matrix Based on Seismic Damage Prediction

作　　者：姚新强[1,2] 孙柏涛[1] 陈宇坤[2] 杨绪连[2] 周强[3] 朱宏[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所,黑龙江哈尔滨150008 [2]天津市地震局,天津300201 [3]南昌大学,江西南昌330031

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2016年第2期318-322,共5页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：中国地震局地震科技星火计划项目(XH15002Y);天津市地震局青年基金项目(20141007);江西省科技支撑计划项目(20141BBG70087)

摘　　要：基于时间因素(材料内部作用、荷载作用和环境影响)和事件因素中的地震因素和抗震加固,通过结构可靠度理论研究和结构材料与构件的试验分析,结合现有的结构动态抗力函数以及不同极限破坏状态和结构抗力之间的对应关系,建立结构的动态易损性。研究事件因素中的拆迁和新建对城市建筑结构数量和类型的影响,以及未来城市不同结构类型的变化特点,给出未来城市的动态震害矩阵;研究群体震害矩阵的异地应用和事件因素中拆迁和新建建筑对震害矩阵的影响,在已有震害预测城市的建筑结构基础资料上,应用模糊数学中可信度方法,形成目标城市的动态震害矩阵,有利于进行结构的抗震设防和地震风险分析。In this study,based on reliability theory and the experimental analysis of structure and materials,we combine the existing dynamic structure resistance coefficient function and the corresponding relation between differ-ent states of limit damage and structural resistance to establish a dynamic structural vulnerability function,based on the time factor （internal effect of materials,loads,and environmental impact）and event factors,including seismic events and seismic reinforcement.By studying the impact of demolition and new construction on the number and type of urban structures,we identify the change characteristics of various future urban structures and develop a dynamic seismic damage matrix for building future cities.Through the offsite application of the group seismic damage matrix and by examining the impacts on the matrix of demolition and construction,we develop a dynamic seismic damage matrix for a target city is formed,based on existing seismic damage predictions for urban structures and the applica-tion of reliability methods in vague mathematics.This matrix could facilitate the analysis of earthquake risks and the need for anti-seismic precautions in structures.

关 键 词：动态震害预测 动态易损性 动态震害矩阵 

分 类 号：P315.957[天文地球—地震学]