印度尼西亚地区VEI≥4的火山喷发活动规律及未来趋势统计研究  

Active pattern and future trend of volcanic eruption with VEI≥4 in Indonesia region

作　　者：芦佳玉 延军平[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,西安710119

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2016年第5期1953-1958,共6页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(14AZD094);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(15JJD7900220)联合资助

摘　　要：本文运用可公度计算及时空对称性理论,结合蝴蝶结构图及可公度结构图对印度尼西亚地区1900年以来VEI≥4火山喷发活动进行趋势判断分析,结果显示:(1)运用三元、四元、五元可公度可知2018年印度尼西亚地区发生VEI≥4火山喷发事件的信号较强.(2)结合蝴蝶结构图及可公度结构系计算得出,2018年印度尼西亚地区发生VEI≥4火山喷发事件的随机概率为45.5%,不漏报置信水平为41.6%.(3)通过经纬度迁移分析,发现其在空间上有一定的迁移规律;纬向迁移对称轴在3.5°S左右,经向迁移对称轴在115°E左右.未来火山喷发事件有可能向东北方迁移.(4)太阳黑子数周期年份与火山喷发有很好的对应性,即火山喷发事件多发生在太阳黑子数下降阶段,在太阳黑子数上升阶段发生火山喷发事件的概率较小,在太阳黑子数峰年和谷年也会发生火山喷发事件,但发生概率明显小于太阳黑子数下降阶段的概率.Based on the volcanic eruption data （VEI/〉≥ 4 ）of Indonesia region since 1900, the symmetry and tendency of the volcanic disasters in Indonesia region were analyzed and judged by the methods of commensurability information extraction and map of butterfly structure. The result showed that： （ 1 ） Using ternary, quaternary, quinary commensurability known that Indonesia in 2018 VEI≥4 volcanic eruption events signal is stronger. （2） Combined with the butterfly structure and commensurability structure is calculated, in Indonesia in 2018 VEI≥4 volcanic eruption events random probability is 45.5%, no omission of the confidence level is 41.6%. （3） Through the analysis of the migration of latitude and longitude, found its migration patterns in a certain space ; Migration of zonal symmetric axis at around 3. 5 ° S, by the migration of around 115 °E. Future volcanic eruption events are likely to north east migration. （4） Year of sunspot number cycle has a good correspondence with a volcanic eruption, the volcanic eruption events occurred in sunspot Numbers decline stage, more in the number of sunspots rising stage of volcanic eruption event probability is small, the number of sunspots maximum falls also volcanic eruption events will happen, but significantly less than the number of sunspots probability decline stage probability.

关 键 词：时空对称性 可公度 太阳黑子 火山喷发 印度尼西亚 

分 类 号：P317[天文地球—固体地球物理学]