康定M_S 6.3级地震前形变场变化与区域地震活动性  

Deformation changes before the Kangding M_S 6.3 earthquake and regional seismicity

作　　者：孟宪纲[1] 王庆良[2] 陈聚忠[1] 刘志广[1] 李朝柱[3] 王子平[3] 朱文武[1] 沈宪兴[1] 徐东卓[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局第一监测中心,天津300180 [2]中国地震局第二监测中心,西安710054 [3]天津市地质工程勘察院,天津300191

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2016年第5期1986-1990,共5页Progress in Geophysics

基　　金：地震行业科研专项(201308009);中国地震局第一监测中心科技创新主任基金(FMC2015016);中国综合地球物理场观测项目(201208009)联合资助

摘　　要：近年来,中国地震活动频繁且震害严重,给人民生命财产造成重大损失.地震能不能有效预测是目前困扰地震研究的科学难题,历史上也有成功利用形变监测资料预测地震案例.本文利用康定M_S6.3地震前区域精密水准和GPS观测资料,系统分析研究区域形变场变化与康定M_S6.3级地震发生之间的关系,以期为今后地震研究提供参考依据.文章所使用GPS观测数据首先利用GAMIT软件处理基准网观测数据,然后利用GLOBK软件进行综合平差计算处理,获取研究区地震发生前水平速度场图像;精密水准观测数据采用"拟稳点"法,对观测网数据进行计算处理,获取研究区震前垂直速度场图像.经过对获取结果的研究分析,得出以下结论:1)区域水平形变场变化与龙门山断裂带、鲜水河断裂带、安宁河断裂带在空间上关系密切,反映该区域在2009—2014年期间发生了引起形变场变化的构造活动或形变,与巴颜喀拉块体近E向滑移有直接的关系.2)区域垂直形变场显示地震发生在垂直梯度带正负变化交界附近,与海城地震和唐山地震相似.3)GPS和精密水准资料分析结果能有效反映孕震信息,建议未来5年重点监测鲜水河断裂带、龙门山断裂带西南段、安宁河断裂带和东昆仑断裂带中东段.In recent years, China earthquake activity and earthquake damage is serious, to the people ＇ s life and property caused heavy losses. Whether can effectively predict earthquake is the scientific problem in earthquake research, has successfully used in the history of deformation monitoring data to predict the earthquake cases. In this paper, using the Kangding Ms 6. 3 precision level and GPS observation data before the quake area, System deformation field analysis of the study area changes with the relationship between kangding Ms 6.3 earthquake happened, hope to provide a reference basis for the earthquake research in the future. Using GPS observation data in the paper, first of all, using GAMIT software processing benchmark network observation data, and then use GLOBK software integrated adjustment calculation processing, horizontal velocity field map of before an earthquake occurs in the study area;and precise leveling observation data using the method of ＂ quasi steady point＂ , calculation and processing of the observation data, before the vertical velocity field map in the study area. After to get the results of research and analysis, the following conclusions： 1 ） Area of horizontal deformation field changes closely related to Longmenshan fault zone, Xianshuihe fault zone, Anninghe fault zone on the space, reflect the region during 2009 -2014 caused deformation field changes have taken place in the structure of the activity or deformation, With balyanlkalla block nearly E have a direct relationship to the slip. 2 ） Regional vertical deformation field shows that the earthquake near the border with the positive and negative change in the vertical gradient, similar to the Haieheng earthquake and Tangshan earthquake. 3 ） GPS and precise leveling data information analysis results can effectively reflect, recommendations focus on monitoring the fresh water river fault zone in the next five years, southwest section of the Longmenshan fault zone ,Anninghe fault zone and the eastern Kunlun fault zone in

关 键 词：走滑断层 垂直速度场 水平速度场 康定地震 鲜水河断裂带 地震活动性 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]