基于风险系统理论的尾矿库环境风险评估模型研究  

The Study of Environmental Risk Assessment Model of Tailings Pond Based on Risk System Theory

作　　者：肖如林[1] 吕杰 申文明[1] 刘思含[1] 付卓[1] 高昂[3] 程越[3] 

机构地区：[1]环境保护部卫星环境应用中心,北京100094 [2]北京市昌平区沙河中学,北京102206 [3]中国标准化研究院,北京100191

出　　处：《安全与环境工程》2016年第6期81-86,共6页Safety and Environmental Engineering

基　　金：环境保护部标准制修订项目(2013-94);环保公益性行业科研专项(201109043);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)项目(2012AA12A310);中央基本科研业务费项目(532015Y-3998)

摘　　要：尾矿库环境风险评估与等级划分是实现尾矿库分级分类管理的基础工作。从风险系统的组织结构视角出发,构建较为系统的尾矿库环境风险评估指标体系,分别建立基于综合加权模型和三维坐标模型的环境风险评估与等级划分方法,并以张家口部分尾矿库为例,采用两种评估方法对该区域内尾矿库的环境风险进行评估与等级划分。结果表明:两种方法均能较好地反映区域内尾矿库的环境风险等级,其中三维坐标模型的风险评估方法在风险的反向回溯追踪分析和实现不同侧重面的风险控制方面更有优势,对尾矿库环境风险分级分类管理具有重要意义。该技术方法的建立,为《尾矿库环境风险评估技术导则(试行)》的研制奠定了重要的技术基础。Assessment and classification of environmental risk of tailings pond is the foundation of classified management. From the perspective of organization structure of the risk system, this paper firstly establi- shes a comprehensive environmental risk assessment index system of tailings pond. Then the paper builds the risk assessment and classification methods for tailings pond based on comprehensive weighted model and three-dimensional cube model,and compares the results of the two models by a case study of the tail- ings pond in Zhangjiakou City. The results show that both models are effective and mostly consistent with each other in revealing the environmental risk of the sample tailings pond, while the three-dimensional cube model has more advantages in risk retrospective analysis and risk control with different emphasis, which makes it more feasible and effective. The establishment of the model has laid an important technical foundation for the development of Technical Guideline for Environmental Risk Assessment of Tailings Pond （Trial）.

关 键 词：尾矿库 环境风险 风险系统 风险评估 风险管理 

分 类 号：X820.4[环境科学与工程—环境工程]