基于贝叶斯方法的竖井中性面模型参数不确定性研究  

A study of parameter uncertainty of neutral-plane model based on Bayesian approach

作　　者：张强[1] 邱榕[1] 蒋勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,合肥230026

出　　处：《火灾科学》2016年第3期148-157,共10页Fire Safety Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51176181);国家重点基础研究发展计划(2012CB719704);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20123402110047;20133402110010);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(WK2320000033)

摘　　要：随着高层建筑越来越多,其发生火灾的风险也越来越大,火灾烟气是导致火势蔓延和人员伤亡的主要原因,因此高层建筑防排烟设计问题可谓重中之重。建筑中性面的性质决定了其在防排烟设计中的关键地位,通过对建筑中性面位置的研究来优化建筑防排烟设计,减少火灾烟气对人和建筑的危害具有重要的意义。在前人工作的基础上,利用场模拟的方法得到样本值,并引入贝叶斯概率方法量化模型参数的不确定性,分析了竖井结构单一参数的不确定性对中性面位置分布的影响。旨在为火灾安全工程设计和竖井模型实验台设计,以及建筑竖向通道防排烟设计提供一定的参考。With the construction of more and more high-rise buildings, the risk of fire is growing. Fire smoke is considered as the main reason of the fire spreading and the casualties. Therefore, design of the smoke-control system for the high-rise buildings is of great importance. The neutral-plane, due to its intrinsic properties, is the key point in the smoke-control, for which researchers try to optimize the smoke-control design in terms of the position of the neutral-plane. We propose a method to analyze the influence generated by the uncertainty of shaft model parameter for the neutral-plane position distribution. Based on the previous work, we obtain the sample values by applying the field simulation method and quantify the uncertainty of the model parameters by the Bayesian probability approach. The research results provide reference for the design of fire safety engineering, shaft model and the smoke-control in buildings.

关 键 词：中性面 场模拟 贝叶斯方法 不确定性 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学]