长江流域径流演变规律研究  

Analysis of Change Characteristics of Runoff in Yangtze River Basin

作　　者：肖紫薇 石朋[1,2] 瞿思敏[1] 王建金[1] 戴韵秋 陈颖冰[1] 陈星宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098 [2]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210098

出　　处：《三峡大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第6期1-6,共6页Journal of China Three Gorges University：Natural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51479062/40371048);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(2015B14314)

摘　　要：为探讨长江流域径流演变规律,基于长江流域上、中、下游共6个控制站的逐日径流观测资料,运用不同指标分析径流年内变化规律;采用累积距平曲线法、线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验法、滑动T检验以及小波分析法分析径流年际变化规律,并应用R/S分析法估算径流序列的Hurst指数,以预测其未来变化趋势.结果表明:长江流域径流年内分配不均匀性存在较为明显的时间变化和空间变化,从50年代到21世纪初期不均匀性大体上呈减小趋势,从上游向下游不均匀性大体上呈减小趋势;流域上游年径流序列变化趋势较一致,从上游至下游变化趋势差异性逐渐增加;流域年径流呈现出多时间尺度的相对丰枯交替特征,流域上、中、下游控制站年径流变化的主周期分别是18年、22年和22年;Hurst指数表明流域年径流当前总体趋势在未来表示出持续性.In order to probe into river runoff changing characteristics in the Yangtze basin, we collected the daily runoff data from 6 control stations, which are located in different river reaches. With these data, this paper analyzes the trend of annual runoff series. Different methods are used, including cumulative anomaly graph, linear trend estimate, Mann-Kendall test, T-test and wavelet analysis. Besides, we adopted the R/S analysis to estimate the Hurst exponent of runoff series; thus predicting the variation trend. The results dem- onstrate that： the nonuniformity of distribution of annual runoff presents temporospatial variation, which shows a downward trend from 1954 to 2008, upstream to downstream. The trend of annual runoff series variation is identical in upstream, and shows an increasing diversity from upstream to downstream. The annual runoff has the periodic characteristics of wet and dry condition. The dominant period of upper, middle and lower reaches is 18a,22a,22a respectively. Hurst values shows that there is a persistent trend for the current tendency of runoff at these stations in the future.

关 键 词：长江流域 径流变化 不均匀系数 MANN-KENDALL检验 小波分析 R/S法 

分 类 号：TV121.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]