1951—2012年东北地区夏季气温及其影响因子变化特征  

Characteristics of summer temperature and its impact factors in Northeast China from 1951 to 2012

作　　者：李辑 焦敏 胡春丽 李菲[2] 张晓月 张琪 王莹 祝新宇[3] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省气象科学研究所,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]沈阳区域气候中心,辽宁沈阳110166 [3]辽宁省防雷技术服务中心,辽宁沈阳110166

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2016年第5期74-83,共10页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106016);辽宁省干旱低温霜冻专家型预报员团队共同资助

摘　　要：利用1951—2012年东北地区26个气象站月平均气温观测资料、国家气候中心74项环流特征量指数和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,分析了东北地区夏季气温及其影响因子的年代际变化特征。结果表明:1951—2012年东北地区夏季气温年代际转型前后大气环流型差异显著。极涡面积、纬向环流及东北冷涡与东北地区夏季气温具有一致的年代际突变点,这些环流因子的年代际变化可能是导致东北地区夏季气温年代际突变的原因之一。东北地区夏季气温与主要环流因子的相关关系在时空上均具有显著的年代际转变,东北地区夏季气温与西太平洋副热带高压、纬向环流及东北冷涡的相关关系表现为年代际增强,东北地区夏季气温与极涡面积的相关关系表现为年代际减弱,这些环流因子对东北地区夏季气温的影响范围和强度也具有显著的年代际变化。The inter-decadal variation of summer temperature and its impact factors in Northeast China were studied based on monthly mean temperature observed at 26 stations in Northeast China,74 circulation characteristic indexes from the National Climate Center,and the NCEP/NCAR（ National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research） reanalysis data from 1951 to 2012. The results demonstrate that there is a significant difference in the atmospheric circulation patterns before and after the inter-decadal transition period of summer temperature in Northeast China from 1951 to 2012. The inter-decadal breaking point in summer temperature is consistent with those in polar vortex area,z onal circulation,and the northeast cold vortex. Therefore, the variation results in these circulation factors may be one of the reasons that lead to a suddenly inter-decadal variation in summer temperature in Northeast China. There is a remarkable inter-decadal transition in the correlation between summer temperature and the main circulation factors at different temporal and spatial scales. The correlation of summer temperature with the western Pacific subtropical high,zonal circulation,and the northeast cold vortex show a strengthening trend at inter-decadal scale,while its correlation with the polar vortex area is weaken with inter-decadal time. The influence scope and intensity of these circulation factors on summer temperature change obviously as well on the inter-decadal scale.

关 键 词：东北地区 夏季气温 极涡面积 纬向环流 东北冷涡 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]