太阳活动与高原积雪及东亚环流的年代际相关分析  

Analysis on Interdecadal Correlation between Solar Activity and Snow Depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and East Asian Atmospheric Circulation in Winter

作　　者：宋燕[1,2] 李智才[1,3] 肖子牛[1,4] 张菁[5] 李宏毅[1] 朱玉祥[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局成都高原气象研究所,成都610072 [3]山西省气候中心,太原030006 [4]中国科学院大气物理研究所,北京100029 [5]沈阳市气象局生态与农业气象中心,沈阳110168

出　　处：《高原气象》2016年第5期1135-1147,共13页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41575091);国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB957803);中国气象局成都高原气象研究所高原气象开放基金课题(LPM2012004)

摘　　要：太阳活动影响气候系统的研究对认识全球气候变化具有重要的意义,本文利用太阳射电通量资料、太阳总辐照度重建资料和太阳黑子数观测资料,应用相关统计方法研究了太阳活动与冬季青藏高原积雪以及东亚地区大气环流的年代际相关关系。结果表明:在去掉太阳11年显著周期的更长时间尺度上,太阳活动超前调节着冬季青藏高原积雪以及东亚大气环流,其中高原积雪滞后太阳射电通量第4年滑动平均年相关最显著,相关系数达到0.8013,通过0.05的Monte-Carlo显著性水平检验;高原冬季积雪与北极涛动和东亚冬季风之间也存在显著的同期和滞后年代际相关关系。The sun is the main energy source of the earth＇s climate system. Recognizing the influence of the solar activity on the earth＇s climate system will improve the climate prediction accuracy. On the basis of knowing the solar activity rules on short term and long term time scales, more further studies about the response of compo- nents of the climate system to the solar activity is necessary. These studies proved that the solar activity is an im- portant factor to change the climate system. Because previous studies show that the present global warming be- longs to reasonable extent of climate system＇ s fluctuations, it is necessary to explore the natural factor＇s role fur- ther. There still has larger space for investigating the influence of solar activity on climate system, also, some un- known fields have not been involved. Snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is one of the key physical fac- tors affecting climate system, however, relationship between snow and the solar activity is still not accessed. So- lar radio flux （SRF）, solar sunspot number （SSN） and total solar irradiance （TSI） are commonly used parame- ters of solar activity, which have different physical meanings. For the first time, this paper reveals the inter- decadal correlation between solar activity and winter snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the typical circulation pattern over the East Asia, that is the Arctic Oscillation and the East Asian winter monsoon. In the fu- ture, in-depth study on the influence of solar activity on the climate system will be done, and the physical pro- cess and physical mechanism will be further revealed in the later work. Arctic Oscillation and East Asian winter monsoon have obvious relation to the snow depth over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and solar activity, and the in- terdecadal correlations between them are discussed in this paper. Some researches about the solar activity and the East Asian winter monsoon on interdecadal time scales （longer than 11 years cycle period） is

关 键 词：青藏高原积雪 太阳活动 年代际相关分析 北极涛动 东亚冬季风 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]