考虑主观态度的低碳出行市场细分实证研究  

Empirical Study on Low-carbon Travel Market Segmentation Analysis Incorporating Attitudinal Variables

作　　者：景鹏[1] 王静[1] 陈龙[1] 查奇芬[2] 陈月霞[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏大学汽车与交通工程学院,江苏镇江212013 [2]江苏大学财经学院,江苏镇江212013

出　　处：《预测》2016年第6期37-43,共7页Forecasting

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71373105);中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2014M561480);江苏省"六大人才高峰"资助项目(2015-JY-025)

摘　　要：为了加深对通勤者低碳方式选择偏好差异形成内在原因的理解,本文将出行者主观态度引入市场细分方法中,用于研究低碳出行市场。根据实证数据,应用因子分析对25个态度观测变量进行降维,以公因子得分为依据,采用K-Means聚类分析方法对出行者出行类型进行细分,将低碳出行市场细分为3个子市场,每个细分子市场内出行者具有类似的低碳出行意愿,不同细分子市场内低碳出行意愿不同,提出针对不同特征的出行者制定更有针对性的交通需求管理策略。研究结果发现虽然出行者具有相同或相似的偏好,但其出行行为会存在差异性。To deeply understand the nature of preferences on mode choice in low-carbon travel behavior among the com- muters, an attitudinal market segmentation method is applied to explore the low-carbon travel market segmentation. Based on the empirical data, factor analysis is used to identify the smallest number of sets from 25 measurement varia- bles, and ohtained the corresponding factor scores. The K-means clustering method is used to segment a population of commuter by scores from factor analysis. Three distinct groups are identified, travelers in the same sub-groups have sim- ilar willingness to low-carbon travel while those in the different sub-groups have distinct willingness. Some suggestions are provided for making traffic demand management strategy based on different groups. The results show that similar atti- tudes can lead to different travel behaviors.

关 键 词：低碳出行 市场细分 出行方式选择 主观态度 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]