基于两种灰色模型的乌鲁木齐市人口预测及其人口问题的探讨  

Population forecast and population problem discuss for Urumqi based on two Grey models

作　　者：郑丽[1] 孜比布拉.司马义 颉渊 帕孜丽娅木.木力提江 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,乌鲁木齐830046

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第11期77-84,共8页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40861006)资助

摘　　要：人口是经济生产和社会生活的主体,准确的预测人口未来的发展状况有利于国家和地区城市规划、人口政策的制定。文中利用Excel和MATLAB建立灰色模型预测未来10年乌鲁木齐市的人口总数、分年龄段的人口数量和人口性别比,研究乌鲁木齐市的人口现状与未来的发展趋势。结果表明:人口总量方面到2023年乌鲁木齐的户籍人口将达到284万人,人口年龄构成方面老年人所占比重约为15.17%,老龄化严重,而性别比将达到110.80,男女性别严重失衡。总的来说,乌鲁木齐市人口面临着老龄化和性别比失衡等问题,这些人口问题的产生与解决值得我们深思,据此提出缓解乌鲁木齐人口问题的合理建议。Population is the main body of economic production and social life,and it is beneficial to the development of the national and regional urban planning and population policy. In this paper,we used Excel and MATLAB to establish the Grey model to predict the population,the sub-age population and the sex ratio of Urumqi in the next 10 years,and to study its present situation and the future development trend. Results show that the total population of Urumqi in 2023 will reach 2. 84 million people,while the population age structure of the elderly accounts for about 15. 17%,the population aging is serious,and sex ratio will reach 110. 80,serious imbalance. In general,the Urumqi city facing the population aging and sex ratio imbalance and so on,the generation and solution of these problems is worth pondering,and then the reasonable suggestion to alleviate the population problem of Urumqi is put forward.

关 键 词：灰色模型 人口预测 人口老龄化 性别比 乌鲁木齐 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]