中国1981～2014年太阳总辐射的时空变化  

The spatial and temporal variation of solar radiation over China from 1981 to 2014

作　　者：陶苏林[1] 戚易明 申双和[1] 李雨鸿 周寅 

机构地区：[1]气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心/江苏省农业气象重点实验室/南京信息工程大学应用气象学院 [2]河南省商丘市气象局 [3]辽宁省气象科学研究所 [4]94857部队61分队

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2016年第11期143-147,共5页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41140019);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506018;GYHY201306046);江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划项目(CXZZ12_0503)资助

摘　　要：利用1981-2014a逐日总辐射资料和最高气温、最低气温、日照时数资料,确定我国逐日太阳总辐射DSRM-C模型（Daily solar radiation model-C）的时不变参数。利用该模型与气象资料,估算各站逐日总辐射,分析近34a总辐射的空间格局。并利用Mann-Kendall（M-K）方法检验辐射量年和季节的变化趋势。结果表明,我国1981-2014a太阳总辐射量总体下降。华北、东北和西南地区总辐射量显著下降,西北地区辐射量明显增加,华南地区则无明显变化。夏、秋、冬季辐射量呈下降趋势,且以夏季变化幅度最大;春季辐射量略有上升。总辐射量四季变化趋势空间分异明显。东部地区夏季和华北地区春、秋、冬季总辐射量明显下降,将影响夏粮和秋粮的生产。The time-invariant parameters of daily solar radiation model-C（ DSRM-C） were determined using observed daily global radiation,maximum and minimum temperature,and sunshine hour data during 1981 ~2014. This model was used to estimate the daily global radiation at each meteorological station over China. The annual and seasonal spatial patterns of global radiation from 1981 to 2014 were then analyzed. Furthermore the Mann-Kendall test method was applied to estimate the change trends during this period. Results indicated that the global radiation over China generally had a decline trend from 1981 to 2014. Decline trends over northern,northeastern and southwestern China and rising trends over northwestern China were significant; while no significant change trends were found over most parts of southern China. Decreased trends were found in summer,autumn and winter,especially large decrease in summer; while global radiation in spring tended towards a slight increase. The spatial variations of global radiation in different seasons were remarkable. In summer,the regions with decreasing global radiation mainly consisted of the eastern regions of China,however in the other three seasons,mainly consisted of the northern regions of China. Decline trends over these regions will affect the productions of summer and autumn crops.

关 键 词：太阳总辐射 日照百分率 气温日较差 模型参数 时空分布 

分 类 号：P422.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S162.3[农业科学—农业气象学]