区域历史地震活动趋势的自回归分析与检验  

AUTO-REGRESSIVE ANALYSIS AND CHECK OF LOCAL HISTORY SEISMIC ACTIVITY TREND

作　　者：樊冬 尹传兵 徐清华 李惊生 吴坤 丁雨 

机构地区：[1]安徽省淮北地震台,安徽淮北235000 [2]安徽省淮北市人民防空和防震办公室,安徽淮北235000

出　　处：《高原地震》2016年第4期15-20,14,共7页Plateau Earthquake Research

基　　金：安徽省地震局科研合同制项目(项目编号:201530)资助

摘　　要：以淮北地震台为中心,按32°~37°N、114°~119°E截取自1970年以来历史上所有的M_L≥4.0级地震事件,分析震中分布特征,建立区域历史地震时间间隔、方位角、震中距参数概率自回归模型,并进行检验与验证。结论显示,该区域发生M_L≥4.0级地震的方位角有84%可能分布在30°~60°、150°~240°和270°~330°范围内,震中距有67%可能分布在120 km^240 km范围内,尤其是时间间隔在3个月、6个月、1年和3年左右的4个时间节点上需重点关注,且检验效果较好。Selected all the ML≥4.0 earthquakes occured in the range of 32° -37°N and 114° -119°E since 1970, the characteristics of the epicenter distribution are analyzed, and the auto -regressive model of the earthquake probability parameter by the time interval, azimuth and epicenter distance is established and checked. The results show that ML≥4.0 seismic activity in this area, 67% possible concentrated in the 120 km - 240 km epicenter distance, 84% possible range of 30° - 60°, 150° - 240°and 270° - 330° azimuth, the time interval at 3 months,6 months,1 year and 3 years need to focus on particularly, and the check results of three example earthquakes were satisfactory.

关 键 词：时间间隔 方位角 震中距 回归分析 地震活动趋势 

分 类 号：P315.58[天文地球—地震学]