中国区域房地产价格异质收敛与调控政策研究  

Heterogeneous convergence of regional house prices and macro-control policy in China

作　　者：林睿[1,2] 董纪昌[1] 李秀婷[1] 吴迪[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学管理学院,北京100190 [2]芝加哥大学社会学系,芝加哥60637

出　　处：《管理科学学报》2016年第11期63-73,102,共12页Journal of Management Sciences in China

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71173213;71203217);博士后科学基金资助项目(2013M540129)

摘　　要：通过研究区域房价的异质收敛为实施区域差异化房地产市场调控提供政策依据．采用非线性时变因子模型对全国30个省市自治区2001M1～2013M12的房价进行实证得出，传统的经济或行政区域划分对区域房地产市场不适用，中国区域房地产价格存在异质收敛，可划分为3个收敛子群．地理因素或经济因素不是区域房价收敛的主导因素，重要的房地产调控政策能够本质性地改变区域房价的收敛情况，而且这种作用一般生效于政策发布后的4～5个月．This paper aims to provide a basis for the differentiated macro-control policy of regional housing markets by studying the heterogeneous convergence of regional house prices. Using the nonlinear time varying factor model, this paper empirically studies the house prices of 30 regions in China with data covering from 2001 ：M1 to 2013：M12. The results show that the conventional de？ nitions of economic or administrative re- gions may not be appropriate to analyze housing price segregation in China. There exists a heterogeneous con- vergence in regional house prices which could be divided into three convergent subgroups. Geographical factors or economic factors are not the dominant factors in regional housing prices convergence, and important real es- tate macro-control policies can essentially alter the convergence of regional house prices, with generally a time- lag effect of 4 to 5 months after the issued policy.

关 键 词：区域 房地产价格 异质收敛 调控政策 非线性时变因子模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F064.1