匹配域投影降尺度方法在黄河流域夏季降水预测中的应用  

Application of Pattern Projection Downscaling Method in the Prediction of Summer Precipitation in Yellow River Basin

作　　者：史恒斌[1] 常军[1] 梁俊平[2] SHI Hengbin CHANG Jun LIANG Junping(Henan Climate Centre, Zhengzhou 450003 Henan Meteorological Service, Zhengzhou 450003)

机构地区：[1]河南省气候中心,郑州450003 [2]河南省气象局,郑州450003

出　　处：《气象》2016年第11期1364-1371,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局2016年度预报预测核心业务发展专项(CMAHX20160403);河南省气象科学技术研究项目(Z201606和Z201602)共同资助

摘　　要：文章采用黄河流域夏季降水数据和BCC-CGCM模式资料,利用匹配域投影降尺度方法对黄河流域夏季降水进行预测,得到以下结论:(1)交叉验证期,匹配域投影降尺度方法对黄河流域夏季降水的预测效果要好于原始模式预测,且较模式直接输出的要素预测稳定;分月预测比夏季整体预测效果要好。(2)匹配域投影降尺度方法对各个区域的预测能力不同,在夏季(6—8月)预测中,预测较好区域比较分散,而分月预测中,预测较好的区域比较集中。月份不同,降尺度方法对于不同地区的预测能力也不同。(3)2009—2013年的独立样本检验表明,匹配域投影降尺度方法对于黄河流域夏季降水的预测效果要明显好于模式直接输出的要素预测。尤其6和7月的降尺度预测较模式直接输出的要素预测有较大提高。Flood and drought caused by summer precipitation anomaly are the most serious disasters in Yellow River Basin, so it is very important to predict the summer precipitation in the Yellow River Basin. Based on summer precipitation observation in the River Basin, and the BCC CGCM model data, a pattern projection downscaling method is used to predict summer precipitation there. The results show that： （1） The prediction result of pattern projection downscaling method is better and more stable than model output prediction for Yellow River Basin. The monthly prediction is better than seasonal prediction. （2） The pattern projection downscaling method produces different predictions for different areas in the Yellow River Basin. In summer （JJA）, the better prediction regions are dispersive. But the better prediction regions are collective in monthly prediction. The prediction capability of the method varies with month. （3） The results of independent sample test on the data from 2009 to 2013 show that the prediction of pattern projection downscaling method for Yellow River Basin is better than model output. Especially in June and July, the prediction of downscaling is greatly superior to the model output.

关 键 词：降尺度 夏季降水预测 气候模式 检验 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]