基于气温的物质平衡模型的参数不确定性分析——以祁连山十一冰川为例  

Uncertainty Analysis of the Parameters of the Temperature-index Method:A Case Study of Shiyi Glacier in Qilian Mountains

作　　者：卿文武[1,2] 刘俊峰[2] 杨钰泉 陈仁升[2] 韩春坛[2] 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,甘肃兰州730000 [2]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所黑河上游生态-水文试验研究站,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2016年第9期937-945,共9页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目"高寒山区冰川消融估算实用方法探索--以黑河上游山区为例"(编号:20130211120035);国家自然科学基金项目"祁连山八一冰川融水汇流过程观测与模拟研究"(编号:41401073)资助~~

摘　　要：利用祁连山十一冰川东、西支2011年和2012年夏季加密冰川物质平衡和气象资料,评估了基于气温的物质平衡计算模型(单临界气温法和度日模型)在整条冰川的适用性,同时采用扰动分析法和GLUE法,对3个关键参数的敏感性和不确定性进行了分析。结果表明:模型能较好地模拟东、西支冰川的夏季物质平衡,在时空尺度上具有较好的适用性,但模拟结果存在一定不确定性;冰的度日因子(K_(ice))是影响2条支冰川物质平衡模拟精度的最敏感参数,其次是雪的度日因子(K_(snow)),而固液态临界温度(T_s)不敏感;模型参数组的"异参同效"现象明显,且3个参数的后验分布特征明显不同,但存在一个参数区间域,能较好保证模型预测的精度。In order to assess the performance of the common temperature-index melt model at both spatial and temporal scale in Qilian Mountains, we performed the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis on the parameters of a common temperature-index method and evaluated the glacier mass balance on a small alpine glacier, which is sepa- rated into two relatively independent branches, with the daily mass balance and the meteorological data in the sum- mer of 2011 and 2012. Sensitivity analysis was conducted by perturbation analysis and uncertainty analysis was car- ried out by Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation （GLUE） for different conditions. The results showed that the temperature-index method could properly capture the diurnal variability of the glacier mass balance. But strong equifinality of model parameter existsed in model calibration due to the uncertainty in the parameters. The model was very sensitive to changes in the value of Kice, followed by the Ksnow and Ts. It was also found that the GLUE ap- proaches could estimate and derive the posterior distributions of 3 parameters properly. Moreover, there existed an acceptable range, which ensured high precision under different conditions.

关 键 词：物质平衡 单临界气温法 度日模型 不确定性分析 

分 类 号：P343.6[天文地球—水文科学]