气候变化和人类活动对中国地表水文过程影响定量研究  

Quantitative evaluations of human- and climate-induced impacts on hydrological processes of China

作　　者：刘剑宇[1,2] 张强[3,4] 陈喜[5] 顾西辉[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广州510275 [2]中山大学华南地区水循环与水安全广东省普通高校重点实验室,广州510275 [3]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [4]北京师范大学减灾与应急管理研究院,北京100875 [5]河海大学水文水资源学院,南京210098

出　　处：《地理学报》2016年第11期1875-1885,共11页Acta Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家杰出青年科学基金项目(51425903);国家自然科学基金重大项目(51190091);安徽省自然科学基金项目(1508085MD65)~~

摘　　要：利用中国372个水文站月径流数据(1960-2000年)及41个水文站年径流数据(2001-2014年),采用基于Budyko假设的水热耦合平衡方程,构建气候变化和人类活动对径流变化影响定量评估模型,在Penman-Monteith潜在蒸发分析基础上,进一步分析气象因子对径流变化的弹性系数,量化气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的影响。结果表明:1中国北方地区流域径流变化对各气象因子弹性系数明显大于中国南方地区。就全国而言,径流变化对各因子的弹性系数为:降水>土地利用/土地覆盖变化(LUCC)>相对湿度>太阳辐射>最高气温>风速>最低气温;2 1980-2000年,气候变化总体上有利于增加中国年径流量,而降水对年径流量增加的贡献最为显著;3 1980-2000年,中国南方流域中,气候变化对年径流变化的影响以增加作用为主,而北方流域,以减少年径流作用为主。对中国大多数流域径流变化而言,人类活动的影响主要以减少年径流量为主。2001-2014年,气候变化以减少径流量为主,人类活动对径流变化的影响程度明显增强,气候变化与人类活动对径流变化的贡献率分别为53.5%、46.5%。该研究对气候变化与人类活动影响下,中国水资源规划管理、防灾减灾及保障水资源安全具有重要理论与现实意义。Based on monthly streamflow data from 372 stations covering the period 1960-2000 and the monthly streamflow data from 41 stations covering the period 2001-2014 across China,human- and climate- induced impacts on hydrological processes were quantified for 10 river basins in China based on development of Budyko-based coupled water-energy balance model.Penman- Monteith potential evapotranspiration model was used to analyze evapotranspiration processes. Besides, elasticity coefficient was also quantified for the impacts of meteorological variables on streamflow changes. The results indicated that：（1） Compared to southern China,streamflow changes are more sensitive to climate changes and human activities in northern China. Generally, relative humidity changes have positive impacts on streamflow changes.However, the maximum temperature, minimum temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and LUCC changes tend to go against streamflow changes. The elasticity coefficients of streamflow changes for meteorological variables are： precipitation 〉LUCC 〉relative humidity〉 solar radiation 〉maximum temperature 〉wind speed 〉minimum temperature;（2） Climate changes during 1980-2000 generally help to increase annual streamflow, and the increase of streamflow by precipitation changes is most evident, and the increase of streamflow depth reaches 12.1mm. However, impacts of meteorological variables on streamflow changes are shifting from one river basin to another, e.g. the maximum temperature and relative humidity help to increase streamflow in northern China but decrease streamflow magnitude in southern China;（3） In general, human activities tend to decrease streamflow. Changes of streamflow in the Yangtze,Songhua, Northwest, and Southeast river basins are 78.7%, 76.9%, 65.7%, and 84.2%,respectively, which can be attributed to climate changes. However, human activities play a dominant role in modifications of streamflow changes, such as Pearl River basin, Huaihe River basin, Haihe River basin, Yellow River ba

关 键 词：径流变化 Budyko假设 弹性系数 气候变化 人类活动 中国 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]