基于WRF-CMAQ对江苏省2014年冬半年霾日的模拟与评估  

Simulation and evaluation of haze day in Jiangsu Province based on WRF/CMAQ model in winter,2014

作　　者：陈欣昊 王咏薇[1,2] 任侠[1,2] 王恪非 刘诚[1] 黄建平[1] 张园园[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气环境中心,南京210044 [2]南京信息工程大学大气物理学院,南京210044

出　　处：《南京大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第6期961-976,共16页Journal of Nanjing University（Natural Science）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41575009);江苏省产学研前瞻性项目(BY2015070-15);"江苏省高校优势学科建设工程(PAPD)项目";长江学者和创新团队发展计划

摘　　要：评估了WRF/CMAQ数值模式对2014年10月—2015年3月江苏省冬半年霾日的模拟准确性,并探讨了导致霾日预报不准确的可能原因.研究表明：（1）WRF/CMAQ模型中霾日预报基准量相对湿度、PM2.5的模拟趋势与观测比较吻合.大气能见度模拟值与观测值的平均值误差为2~5km.临海及近海城市大气能见度模拟值普遍大于观测值,均方根误差超过10km以上.（2）能见度模拟较好的城市（南京、镇江、常州、苏州、扬州）,观测霾日与模拟霾日之间误差小于10d,东边沿海城市盐城、南通、连云港等能见度模拟存在较大峰值的城市模拟最差误差超过10km以上,模拟出的霾日数远小于观测到的霾日数,误差超过20d.（3）对能见度预报可能造成偏差的原因进行了初步探讨,EC在PM2.5中所占比份模拟偏小、水溶性离子等模拟值被低估等造成气溶胶消光系数偏小以及部分地区相对湿度模拟值偏低,风速模拟偏大,都使得能见度模拟值偏大.This paper evaluates the accuracy of simulated winter haze days from October 2014 to March 2015 based on WRF/CMAQ model and discusses the possible reason of inaccurate forecast for haze day.The research show that：（1）The simulations of WRF/CMAQ model show coincidence with observation in relative humidity and PM2.5 ,which are base variables for forecasting.The average error is 2~5 km between atmospheric visibility simulation values and observation values.In Coastal and offshore cities,the simulated visibility is significantly greater than observed,and＆amp;nbsp;root mean square error exceeds 10 km.（2）In cities where visibility is simulated better（i.e.Nanjing,Zhenjiang, Changzhou,Suzhou,Yangzhou）,the difference between simulated days and observed haze ones is less than 10 days. The simulated value of haze days is far less than observed,and the largest error is more than 20-day in eastern coastal cities such as Yancheng,Nantong and Lianyungang,where there is a large simulated value peak.（3 ）A preliminary discussion on possible causes of differences between observed and simulated atmosphere visibility is described in this paper.A higher simulated visibility value is caused by some factors such as small simulated proportion of EC-to-PM2.5 ,underestimation of water-soluble ions resulting in a lower simulated aerosol extinction coefficient,lower simulation value of relative humidity and lager simulated value of wind speed in some area.

关 键 词：WRF/CMAQ模式 霾日 能见度 气溶胶 

分 类 号：X513[环境科学与工程—环境工程]