交通基础设施、产业结构与减贫效应研究——基于面板VAR模型  

Transport Infrastructure,Industrial Structure and Effect of Reducing Poverty——Based on the Panel VAR Model

作　　者：李慧玲[1] 徐妍[2] LI Hui-ling XU Yan(School of Economics, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 100081 Business College, Xinjiang Normal University, Urumqi Xinjiang 830017, China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学经济学院,北京100081 [2]新疆师范大学商学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830017

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2016年第8期25-30,共6页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金应急项目(71541034);中亚与中国西北边疆政治经济研究中心资助项目(040313C01)

摘　　要：交通基础设施是国民经济发展的基础性先导产业,它与国民经济其它产业紧密相连,对缩小城乡收入差距、减少贫困具有重要作用。文章选取我国1988-2014年省域面板数据,构建PVAR模型对交通基础设施建设、产业结构调整与减贫效应之间的互动关系进行实证分析,实证结果显示:交通基础设施建设与产业结构调整及减贫效应之间表现出一种稳定的长期均衡关系,交通投资与产业结构调整互为双向关系,而交通基础设施建设与减贫效应之间是单向关系,交通投资对农民收入呈现出较强地正向影响,但农民收入的增加缺乏对交通基础设施促进的冲击效应。产业结构调整与减贫效应之间具有双向互动关系,其中产业结构合理化对增加农民收入的冲击效应更明显。The development of the transport infrastructure is fundamental leading industry for national economic development. It is closely combined with other industries of national economy, to narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas, and poverty reduction plays an important role. The provincial panel data during 1988-2014 in China is selected, built PVAR model for traffic infrastructure construction and industrial structure adjustment, and made an empirical analysis of the interactive relationship among poverty reduction effects. The empirical results show that the inter effects of traffic infrastructure construction, industrial structure adjustment and poverty reduction contain a stable long-term equilibrium relationship with the two-way relationship between transport investment and industrial structure adjustment; transport infrastructure and poverty reduction effect is a one-way relationship with transport investment, which hold a strong positive influence on farmers＇ income, but the increase of farmers＇ income lacks the impacts to transport infrastructure. There is interacted relation between industrial structure adjustment and poverty reduction, and the rationalization of industrial structure contains more obvious impact to increase farmers＇ income.

关 键 词：交通投资 设施建设 产业结构 产业扶贫 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]