北美大电力系统可靠性风险评估体系及启示  

Risk Assessment System of NERC Bulk Power System and Its Inspiration

作　　者：刘文霞 单晓东 江伟民[2] 王志强 夏宝亮 

机构地区：[1]新能源电力系统国家重点实验室(华北电力大学),北京市昌平区102206 [2]宁夏电力公司电力科学研究院,宁夏回族自治区银川市750002

出　　处：《电网技术》2016年第12期3811-3817,共7页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2013BAA02B02)~~

摘　　要：为更加客观全面地评价我国电力系统可靠性,需建立新形势下的可靠性风险评估体系。文章首先介绍了北美基于运行数据的大电力系统可靠性风险评估体系的管理体系、数据库结构、指标设立原则和分类方法。然后重点分析了北美正在试用的状态驱动指标(condition driving index,CDI)和事件驱动指标(event driving index,EDI)的设立宗旨、对可靠性特征的分类、基于分类特征的指标开发方法,以及指标和风险后果的定量计算模型,并结合案例说明了指标的计算和分析方法。最后结合我国可靠性管理现状,指出我国在可靠性管理模式和数据集成方面亟待改进,同时建议率先引进CDI指标评估体系,实现安全事件信息的深入挖掘,为电网运行、规划提供靶向指导,并为相关标准的改进提供支撑。Reliability risk assessment system under new situation should be established to evaluate reliability power systems in China more objectively and comprehensively. Firstly, this paper presents management system, database structure, index setting principles and classification methods, included in NERC bulk power system risk assessment system based on operating data. Then analysis is performed focusing on establishment purpose, reliability characteristic classification, development method of indexes based on classification characteristics and quantitative calculation model of the indexes and risk consequences of CDI（condition driving index） and EDI（event driving index） on trial by NERC. Combining with cases, calculating and analyzing method of the indexes are also illustrated. Finally, according to current situation of reliability management in China, reliability managing model and data integration need to improve and CDI evaluation system need to introduce is suggested. With theses measures, information contained in security events can be deeply excavated, and targeted guidance for power grid operating and planning and supports for improvement of related standards can be provided.

关 键 词：电力系统 风险评估 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TM71[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]