基于单向S-粗集理论的输电系统可靠性评估  

Transmission system reliability evaluation based on one direction S-rough set theory

作　　者：杨晓萍[1] 王媛[1] 王明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]国电南京自动化股份有限公司,江苏南京210032

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2016年第12期57-62,共6页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(50779053)~~

摘　　要：为研究复杂天气对输电系统可靠性的影响,提出了一种基于单向S-粗规律和F-分解规律的输电系统可靠性评估方法。通过单向S-粗规律处理故障率和天气情况的不确定性,并建立基于复杂天气因素的输电线路可靠性模型,采用非序贯蒙特卡洛方法进行系统可靠性评估;运用F-分解规律形成干扰度指标,并分析不同天气组合对可靠性指标的影响。IEEE 30节点发输电系统的算例分析表明,考虑天气因素的元件可靠性参数模型能准确预测输电线路故障率,所提可靠性评估方法以客观数据(年气候天数)为基础,可以杜绝人为主观因素的影响,揭示了天气因素对系统可靠性的影响规律,评估结果更客观。A method of transmission system reliability evaluation based on the one direction S-rough law and F-decomposing law is proposed to study the effects of complex weather on the reliability of transmission system. The one direction S-rough law is applied to deal with the uncertainty of failure rate and weather. A transmission line reliability model based on complex weather factors is established and the non-sequential Monte Carlo method is applied to evaluate the system reliability. F-decomposing law is applied to develop the interference indices and the effects of different weather combinations on them are analyzed. Analysis for IEEE 30-bus power generation and transmission system shows that,the component reliability parameter model with the consideration of weather factors predicts the transmission line failure rate accurately and the proposed reliability evaluation method based on the objective data（yearly days of different weather conditions） is immune to the influence of human subjective factors,which reveals the influencing law of weather factors on the system reliability and makes the evaluation results more objective.

关 键 词：可靠性评估 单向S-粗集 F-分解规律 线路故障率 天气因素 

分 类 号：TM76[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]