基于VAR和灰色关联度的海南旅游业发展影响因素分析  

Analysis of Economic Factors Affected the Development of Hainan Tourist Industry Based on VAR and Grey Relational Degree

作　　者：孔朝莉[1] 李国徽[1] 

机构地区：[1]三亚学院理工学院,海南三亚572022

出　　处：《科技和产业》2016年第11期28-36,42,共10页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：海南省自然科学基金项目(20151007;20161010)

摘　　要：利用2011年1月-2015年12月共60个月数据,建立以海南旅游业总收入、地方基础性投入、投资、游客消费能力、旅游接待规模为内生变量的VAR(3)模型。经过Granger因果关系检验,发现地方基础性投入、投资水平、游客消费能力、旅游接待规模四个因素都是海南旅游业总收入的Granger原因,同时,旅游业总收入也是基础性投入和旅游接待规模的Granger原因。根据VAR(3)进行脉冲响应分析和方差分解,得到各因素对海南旅游业总收入影响的差异性以及动态变化规律,通过灰色关联分析,发现对海南旅游业总收入影响程度从高到低依次是投资水平、旅游接待规模、地方基础性投入和游客消费能力,与VAR模型互为补充,使结论分析更科学、全面,为海南旅游业发展相关政策的制定提供一定参考。Since terrorism has become a hot issue in the world, researches centered on this issue increased significantly around the world.The analysis of hotspots and new trends in terrorism research are beneficial to the comprehension of terrorism, which can also act as a guidance to the researchers. In this paper,a number of 8216 literatures related to terrorism were analyzed via the method of literature quantification. With the aid of Cite Space text mining tools and the methods of co-citation analysis, frequency analysis, time series analysis as well as burst phrase detection,the basis of terrorism research together with its research perspectives, research hotspots and trends in different periods were examined in this paper.

关 键 词：VAR模型 GRANGER因果检验 脉冲响应分析 方差分解 灰色关联度 海南旅游业 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计] F590[理学—数学]