房地产投资对货币传导机制的影响研究——基于VADL模型的实证分析  

The Effect of Real Estate Investment on Monetary Transmission Mechanism in China——An Empirical Study Based on VADL Model

作　　者：李庆华[1] 周瑶[1] 

机构地区：[1]华中师范大学经济与工商管理学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《现代财经（天津财经大学学报）》2016年第12期86-96,共11页Modern Finance and Economics：Journal of Tianjin University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY011)

摘　　要：我国房地产经济的发展对我国货币供给向实体经济的流动有特殊重要的作用,但房地产经济发展的过度膨胀,也会给货币供给向其它实体产业的流动带来负向影响。本文以2005—2016年的季度数据作为估计依据,根据IS—LM模型构建变系数自回归分布滞后(VADL)模型,就中国房地产投资规模对货币传导机制的影响进行了检验和分析。实证结果表明:房地产投资规模对货币传导的效率和时滞有正反两个方向的影响;当房地产开发投资总额的增量超过一个临界点后,其影响是负向的,反之则是正向的;由市场因素决定的房地产投资数量存在一个季度投资额约为1万亿元人民币的最优规模,超过这个规模的部分很可能是非市场因素(如地方政府)作用的结果。因此,根据合理的房地产投资规模建立房地产投资增量控制的预警机系统对我国市场经济整体的理性发展有重要作用。The development of China＇s real estate economy has a special effect on the flow of money supply to the real economy,but the over-expansion of the real estate economy will also have a negative impact on the flow of money supply to other entities.This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of China＇s real estate investment on monetary transmission mechanism based on Vary coefficient Autoregressive-Distributed Lag（VADL）model with the quarter data from 2005 to 2016.The results show that the real estate investment scale has an effect of both positive and negative direction on efficiency and time lag of monetary transmission;when the increment of real estate investment exceeds a critical point,the influence is negative,otherwise it is positive;the number of real estate investment is decided by market factors with an optimal scale of 1trillion yuan,and the part beyond of this scale is likely to be the result of nonmarket factors（such as local government）.Therefore,establishing a warning system of the real estate investment increment control based on a reasonable real estate investment scale is important to the rational development of the market economy in our country.

关 键 词：房地产投资 货币传导机制 VADL模型 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]