川中丘陵区近60 a主要气象因子变化趋势研究  

Study on Trends of the Main Meteorological Factors in Hill Area of Central Sichuan over the Past 60 Years

作　　者：李华丽[1] 崔宁博[1,2] 李晨[1] 胡笑涛[3] 龚道枝[4] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室/水利水电学院,成都610065 [2]南方丘区节水农业研究四川省重点实验室,成都610066 [3]西北农林科技大学旱区农业水土工程教育部重点实验室,陕西杨凌712100 [4]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所/作物高效用水与抗灾减损国家工程实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2016年第12期80-87,共8页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAD24B01)

摘　　要：为深入了解川中丘陵区近60 a气候变化规律,基于川中丘陵区13个站点1954—2013年逐日气象资料,使用Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析和相关性分析,定量研究了气象因子的变化趋势及变化周期。结果表明,近60 a来川中丘陵区辐射、降水、风速及相对湿度均呈整体下降趋势(降幅分别为0.242 3 MJ/(m^2·d·10 a)、0.050 0 mm/10 a、0.025 7 m/(s·10 a)和0.137 2%/10 a),温度呈上升趋势(增幅为0.031 6℃/10 a);气温、辐射、降水、风速及相对湿度等气象因子60 a来均呈现"增大-减小"的周期性变化规律,变化主周期分别为6、12、13、21、24 a,且其局部突变分别发生在1964年和1996年、1986年、1957—1985年、1958—1963年和2008年;各气象因子相关性较为明显且交互影响关系复杂,其中风速与辐射显著正相关(P<0.05),与湿度极显著负相关(P<0.01),而辐射与气温极显著正相关(P<0.01),与湿度显著负相关(P<0.05)。To obtain the law of climate change in Hill Area of Central Sichuan in nearly 60 years, Mann-Kendall test and Mann Kendall rank correlation, Morlet wavelet method and Correlation analysis were used to study the trends and change cycles of temperature, radiation, wind speed, precipitation and relative humidity based on daily meteorological data during 1954--2013 of 13 meteorological stations. Results showed that other meteorological factors had decreasing trends with rates of 0.243 4 MJ/（m：＂ d＂ 10 a）, 0.050 0 mrn/10a, 0.025 7 m/（s. 10 a） and 0.137 2%/10 a, except the temperature had an increasing trend with a rate of 0.031 6 ~C/10 a. The annual climat- ic data of Hill Area of Central Sichuan existed an ＂increase- decrease＂ alternating change with the first periods of 6, 12, 13, 21 and 24 years, and the meteorological factors mutated respectively in 1964 and 1996, 1986, 1957 to 1985, 1958 to 1963, 2008. Correlation analysis showed that the climatic data of Hill Area of Central Sichuan existed significant correlation. The correlation between wind speed and radiation passed through the 0.05 significance test, and the correlation between wind speed and humidity passed through the 0.01 significance test; The correlation between radiation and humidity passed through the 0.05 significance test, and the correlation between radiation and temperature passed through the 0.01 significance test. The study of interrelation between meteoro- logical elements made it possible to forecast the changes happening in future, which could be a guidance for agri- cultural production in Hill Area of Central Sichuan to overcame the climate change.

关 键 词：川中丘陵区 气象因子 变化趋势 MANN-KENDALL检验 MORLET小波分析 相关性分析 

分 类 号：S161[农业科学—农业气象学]