降雨型滑坡诱发电网连锁故障风险评估模型研究  

The Research on Risk Assessment Model of Power Grid Cascading Failures Caused by Rainfall-induced Landslides

作　　者：谭洋洋[1] 杨洪耕[1] 徐方维[1] 刘友波[1] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学电气信息学院,成都610065

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2016年第33期8-13,28,共7页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51207098)资助

摘　　要：针对我国西部地区极端降雨型滑坡灾害诱发高压输电线路停运的现状,分析了极端降雨气象导致电力设施所处位置发生滑坡地质灾害的特点和影响线路故障率的途径。基于降雨历史数据与滑坡致灾机理,建立输电线路失效概率的混合模型;同时提出降雨气象诱发电网线路群发性故障集筛选原则,并根据效用理论和风险理论建立降雨型滑坡导致电网连锁故障的风险评估模型。最后,以我国西南某地质多发区域电网进行仿真分析,通过仿真结果比较分析,验证了所提方法的合理性。According to the situation that extreme rainfall-induced landslides hazards frequently caused the highvoltage transmission line outage in Western China,the characteristics of extreme rainfall weather caused the geotechnical landslide around the power system infrastructures,and the ways of line failure probability were analyzed. Basing on rainfall history data and mechanism of landslides,the transmission line failure probability model was established. The screening principle of power grid clustered faults caused by rainfall weather was proposed. On the basis of utility theory and risk theory proposed the risk assessment model of power grid cascading failures. Finally,taken the a regional power grid of Western China as an example,the rationality of the proposed method is verified by comparison with simulation results.

关 键 词：降雨型滑坡 效用理论 风险理论 连锁故障 风险评估 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]