从两张图看欧佩克的“冻产”  

From The Two Charts To See OPEC's "Frozen"

作　　者：张抗 

机构地区：[1]中石化石油勘探开发研究院技术咨询委员会 [2]中石化石油勘探开发研究院能源研究会

出　　处：《中国石油企业》2016年第11期18-21,2,共4页China Petroleum Enterprise

摘　　要：多数研究者都认为这次低油价不是偶然的,而是供应明显大于需求的市场形势积累的必然。他以"腰斩"之势已持续了两年多,带来了国际石油市场上的大动荡。与世界经济形势走向相应,到目前为止供需形势并没有重大改变,需求增速低迷而产量仍不断增加。换言之,形成低油价的基本条件仍没有改变。笔者预计:短期(如2020年前)以不变美元计年均油价将在50美元/桶上下,石油工业(特别是上游)仍将处于"寒冬";中期(如2025年前后)以不变美元计年均油价将在60美元/桶上下;中长期年均油价80美元/桶以上将成为低概率事件。Most researchers believe that the low price of oil is not accidental,but the supply is obviously greater than the demand for the accumulation of market conditions inevitable.To 'waist cut' trend has lasted more than two years,bringing the international oil market turmoil.With the world economy to the corresponding situation,so far the supply and demand situation has not changed significantly,the demand growth in the doldrums and production is still increasing.In other words,the basic conditions for the formation of low oil prices have not changed.The oil industry(especially upstream) will remain in the 'winter';the medium term(such as before and after 2025) to the same(such as before 2020) to the same dollars in the average annual oil prices will be 50 US dollars / barrel,The average annual oil price in dollars will be 60 US dollars / barrel up and down;the average long-term oil price of 80 US dollars / barrel or more will be a low probability event.

关 键 词：欧佩克 油价走势 油气企业 扭亏增效 低油价 市场 商品 价格 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济]