TPP与TTIP框架下的全球贸易再平衡及对中国影响  

The Impact of TTP and TTIP Agreement on China and International Trade Rebalance

作　　者：周爽[1] 齐天宇[2] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084

出　　处：《中国软科学》2016年第11期14-21,共8页China Soft Science

摘　　要：本文通过对1995-2013年全球双边贸易数据分析以及建立全球贸易模型,对中国加入WTO前后以及美国主导的TPP与TTIP全球贸易框架达成后,国际贸易格局的变化以及对中国的影响进行研究。研究表明:从历史数据的来看,中国加入WTO以后全球贸易格局从以美欧为中心向全球多级发展转变;TPP与TTIP的实施将有效促进协议框架下各成员国之间的贸易活动,减小非协议成员国贸易份额,促使全球贸易份额由非协议成员国向成员国转移;TPP与TTIP将中国排除在外,将合力压缩中国国际贸易市场空间并帮助东南亚与拉美地区瓜分替代,导致中国贸易总额下降13%。Based on a data analysis of international trade from 1995 to 2013 and building an international trade model, this paper studies the change of international trade pattern and its impact on China before and after China＇s WTO entry and after the TPP and TTIP agreement was reached. This study shows that, after China joining WTO, the pattern of international trade was changed from US and Europe as a single-center to a globle muhi-level development. The implementation of TPP and qTIP will promote trade activities among participating countries, and reduce trade share among non-participating countries. As China has been excluded from TPP and TFIP initiative, Chinese international trade space will be compressed and carved up by Southeast Asia and Latin America Area. Ultimately, Chinese total trade-in value will lose 13%.

关 键 词：TPP TTIP 国际贸易 

分 类 号：F130[经济管理—世界经济]