基于动态网络流的区域疏散分析模型与仿真  

Analysis model and simulation of regional evacuation based on dynamic network flow

作　　者：邓云峰[1] 盖文妹[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家行政学院,北京100089 [2]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2016年第11期24-30,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71173198;91324017;71603017);中国博士后科学基金(2016M591081)

摘　　要：区域疏散分析是应急管理工作的重要内容。基于CBRN事故区域疏散的特点,引入疏散亚区域的概念,并运用运筹学中图论与离散时间动态网络流的理论和方法,建立CBRN事故区域疏散优化模型。采用RELAX算法求解该模型,并结合CBRN事故时期人员疏散过程详细介绍区域疏散分析的流程。最后将所建模型应用于具体实例,程序运算结果表明群众对紧急疏散通知的反应速度越快,被疏散人数越少以及尽早通知群众疏散时,人员疏散效率明显提高。CBRN事故区域疏散优化模型可为优化和改进CBRN事故区域疏散的方法提供依据。The analysis of regional evacuation is an important part of emergency management. Based on the characteristics of regional evacuation in CBRN incidents,the concept of sub- area evacuation was introduced,and then the graph theory and the theories of discrete- time dynamic network flow were used to build a mathematical model of regional evacuation in CBRN incidents and the RELAX algorithm was used to calculate it. Finally,simulation experiments are carried out to test the models and algorithms presented in this paper. The factors affecting the efficiency of evacuation were studied with different settings of population to be evacuated,the notification time and loading flow,etc. By analyzing the simulation results the evacuation efficiency is obviously improved when the response time of evacuation for people in affected area after they receive the emergency evacuation notice is shorten or the notification time of warning people to evacuate is shorten. The model of regional evacuation in CBRN incidents can provide powerful technical support for emergency decision and provide a strong powerful technical support for emergency evacuation.

关 键 词：应急管理 优化模型 CBRN事故 区域疏散 仿真 

分 类 号：X913.3[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U116.2[交通运输工程]