基于模糊综合评价的水环境安全评价--以南京市为例  

Water environment security assessment based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation——A Case study of Nanjing City

作　　者：赵静[1] 臧英平 张丽[3] 徐学东 王腊春[1] 吴昊[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理科学与海洋学院,江苏南京210023 [2]南京市水资源管理中心,江苏南京210008 [3]西交利物浦大学淮安新型城镇化发展研究院,江苏淮安223005

出　　处：《江苏水利》2016年第12期4-11,共8页Jiangsu Water Resources

基　　金：江苏省水利科技项目(2014007)

摘　　要：水环境安全是区域社会经济健康发展的基础。针对南京市快速经济发展下的水环境安全问题,基于压力-状态-响应(P-S-R)概念模型构建的水环境安全评价指标体系,采用模糊综合评价模型对南京市2005-2014年水环境安全状况进行评价得出,南京市水环境基本安全,响应层安全性较好,压力层次之,状态层最弱。水环境安全状态平均安全度值高(3.16),不安全年份比例大(40%),且安全度值无明显下降趋势,存在不安全转变的风险。可通过适度控制人口规模和经济增长,从根本上降低城市用水压力和污染负荷。此外,加强城市节水建设和水土保持相关工作,如降低农田实灌亩均用水量、提高城市节约用水量、扩大建成区绿化覆盖率、森林覆盖率等,对于促进和保障南京市水环境安全也具有重要意义。Water environment security is the foundation of regional social and economic development. Aiming at the problem of water security under the rapid economic development of Nanjing city, based on the water environment safety evaluation index system established by the concept model of pressure state response （P-S-R model）, the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model was used to evaluate the water environment security of Nanjing city from 2005 to 2014. Result showed that the water environment security of Nanjing city was at the basic safety level. Safety evaluation result in response layer was the best, then stress layer, and state layer was the weakest. There was an high average safety degree of water environmental safety state layer （3.16）, and the proportion of unsafe years was relatively large （40%）, considering no significant decrease trend in the value of farmland irrigation water use, improving urban water saving and expanding the built-up area green coverage as well as the forest coverage rate and so on, also has important significance to promote and protect the waterenvironment security of Nanjing city.

关 键 词：P-S-R模型 水环境安全 模糊综合评价 南京 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]