经济下行背景下财政最优偿债规则研究--基于DSGE模型分析  

Research on the Optimal Fiscal Repayment Rules under the Background of Economic Decline: Based on DSGE Model

作　　者：武彦民[1] 竹志奇 王涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学经济学院 [2]中央财经大学财政学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2016年第12期12-25,共14页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：天津市社科基金项目"天津市地方投融资平台债务风险研究--风险的评估;预警与治理"(项目编号TJYY11-2-069);天津市哲学社会科学规划项目"京津冀协同发展背景下天津市地方政府收入可持续性研究"(项目编号:TJYY15-016);天津市"地方公共财政研究"科研创新团队项目

摘　　要：我国经济进入新常态后,GDP增长逐渐放缓,赤字率不断攀升,负债率存在较大上升压力。在经济下行背景下,任由负债率攀升会给宏观经济造成严重隐患,因此有必要加紧探索最优财政偿债政策。本文通过一个动态随机一般均衡模型,模拟全要素生产率下降、社会投资下降和居民消费下降三种不同的经济下行冲击,对比分析了31种财政偿债规则的模拟结果。同时利用相关变量的波动情况构建指标评价体系,在找到最优财政偿债规则的基础上对其特征与变化规律进行了进一步的研究。研究发现:政府对于负债率的敏感度直接决定了哪些偿债规则最优;不同冲击下的政府最优偿债规则不尽相同;通过政府消费调节负债率波动的成本低于其他财政工具;不同类型相同幅度的冲击造成负债率波动的程度不同。最后根据结论提出了相关政策建议。After China＇s economy enteredthe ＂New Normal＂, GDP growth gets slow, deficits rise, and the debt ratio increases. In the background of the economic downturn, the rising of debt ratio will expose mac- roeconomy to high risk. It is necessary to explore the optimal fiscal policy. Through a dynamic stochastic ge- neral equilibrium model, we simulate the decline of TFP considered as the three different aspects of the economic , social investment and consumer spending which are downturn. We comparatively analyze the simulation results of 31 kinds of fiscal repayment rules. While taking advantage of fluctuations in the relevant variables to build evaluation index system, we find the best fiscal repayment rule on the basis of a further study of its cha- racteristics and variation. The study find ： the sensitivity of the government to debt ratio determines the optimal rule ; under the different impacts, the government optimal debt repayment rules are different ; the cost of adjus- ting debt through government spending is lower than the other financial instruments; impact of different types with the same magnitude cause the different fluctuations of the debt ratio. Finally, we proposed some recom- mendations.

关 键 词：财政偿债规则 DSGE模型 政府债务 债务风险 

分 类 号：F810[经济管理—财政学]