高货币化率的非货币化解释  

A Non-monetization Explanation for China's High Monetization Ratio

作　　者：王磊[1] 朱太辉[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学金融学院 [2]中国社科院金融研究所博士后流动站 [3]中国银监会博士后工作站

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2016年第12期13-22,共10页Studies of International Finance

摘　　要：M2/GDP是货币化率的近似指标。在货币化进程已经基本完成且M2/GDP已经超过2时,M2/GDP已经无法近似货币化率。所以,要解释以M2/GDP衡量的高货币化率,反而需要考虑货币化之外的因素。根据货币交易方程,M2/GDP是货币流通速度的倒数。高货币化率的本质是货币流通速度非常低。因此,要解释高货币化率,应该分析经济主体对货币作为一种资产的需求为何这么高,从而导致货币流通速度如此低。本文从弗里德曼的货币需求函数推导出,中国的高货币化率主要是经济快速增长带来的财富积累增加和金融市场不够发达导致投资渠道有限且收益率较低造成的。本文利用数据初步验证了相关假说。本文也进一步推断了货币化率下降的最可能的路径:在货币供给增速不大幅度增加的情况下,随着市场化改革的进程,投资渠道增加,对货币的需求降低,资产价格上涨,居民财富增加,消费增加,从而推动物价和产出逐步上升,M2/GDP缓慢下降。M2/GDP is an indicator of monetization ratio. As monetization process is almost complete and M2/GDP is close to 2, M2/GDP can no longer indicate the monetization ratio. Therefore, non-monetization factors need to be considered in order to explain China＇s high monetization ratio. According to the money transaction equation, M2/GDP is the reciprocal of the velocity of money. High monetization ratio means the velocity of money is very low. To explain the high monetization ratio, we need to analyze the demand for money as an asset of economic agents. Derived from Friedman＇ s money demand function, we conclude that wealth accumulation due to fast economic growth and limited investment channels are the two main reasons resulting in high monetization ratio in China. Empirical tests are employed to test some related hypotheses. This paper further infers the most possible path decreasing China＇s high monetization ratio： under the condition of no excess money supply, with the advancement in marketization reform, more investment channels are available. Therefore the demand for money decreases, and asset prices are driven up, leading to higher household wealth to further stimulate consumption. Higher consumption makes the general prices and output increase steadily, realizing the lower MJGDP accordingly.

关 键 词：资产选择 货币需求 货币化率 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]