1981—2014年中国资本服务流量测算——基于截断正态退役分布和几何役龄效率剖面  

Measurement of Capital Services Flow in China:Based on Truncated Normal Retirement Distribution and Geometric Age Efficiency Profile

作　　者：姬卿伟[1] 李跃[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学统计学院,北京100875 [2]北京师范大学经济与资源管理研究院,北京100875

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2016年第12期30-36,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

摘　　要：通过梳理资本核算理论框架,结合中国实际情况测量了1981-2014年资本服务流量。资本分类、组合役龄效率-退役剖面计算、资本回报率确定和初始单位效率生产性资本存量估计等方面与既有研究有所不同。测量结果表明:按照1990年不变价格,各类资本服务流量呈增加趋势,其中无形资产服务流量前期较为波动;设备类服务流量增速最高;总资本服务增长率前期呈V型后期呈倒U型,与GDP增速变动不一致,整体来看前者高于后者;比较发现测量结果高于其它研究,差距先收敛后扩大。This paper combed the capital measure theory framework,and then combined with the practical situation in China measured the flow of capital service from 1981 to 2014.Capital classification,combined age efficiency-retirement profile＇s calculation,the decision of capital return rate and the estimate of unit efficiency productive capital stock are different from existing researches in China.The results show that according to 1990＇s price,each type of capital service flow has the increase trend except that the intangible assets＇ is more volatile in early stage,and the equipment cohort has the highest service flow growth;the total capital services growth displays ＂ V＂ in early stage and inverted ＂ U＂ in the late stage,which do not agree with the growth of GDP markedly,and the former growth is higher than that of the latter as a whole.Then finally it is found that the paper＇s result is bigger than that of others＇,and the gap is gradually reduced then enlarged.

关 键 词：资本服务流量 组合几何役龄效率-退役剖面 使用者成本 资本服务物量指数 

分 类 号：C812[社会学—统计学] F222.33