天津市基于新标准的空气质量预报模型效果评估  

Effect Evaluation of Air Quality Forecast Model based on New Standard in Tianjin

作　　者：高璟赟[1] 杨宁[1] 毕温凯[1] 肖致美[1] 陈魁[1] 李源[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市环境监测中心,天津300191

出　　处：《环境监控与预警》2016年第6期9-14,共6页Environmental Monitoring and Forewarning

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2014BAC23B01);天津市重大科技专项基金资助项目(14ZCDGSF00027)

摘　　要：利用2015年环境空气质量监测数据,对天津市OPAQ空气质量统计预报模型预测效果进行验证评估。结果表明,模型对天津市AQI和PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、O_3、NO——2的预测结果与实测结果具有较好的趋势一致性,且预测时间越临近,拟合度越好,24 h预报的相关系数r全部达到0.8以上。对PM_(2.5)的预报性能明显优于PM_(10)、O_3和NO_2,PM_(2.5)平均值预测略呈正偏差,但重污染预测值偏低约15%;O_3和NO_2预测值呈明显负偏差,O_3峰值预测不足,NO_2预测值整体偏低,均以24 h预报趋势性最好,但负偏差最为突出。Based on the comparison of environmental air qual ity monitoring data in 2015 , the effect of OPAQ air qual ity statistical forecast model in Tianjin was evaluated. The results showed that the prediction of AQI and PM2.5 , PM10 , O3,NO2 concentrations were in good agreement with the monitoring data, and the correlation coefficient was higher with the prediction time nearer. The correlation coefficient r of 24-hour forecast all reached more than 0.8. The prediction performance of PM2 5 was better than that of PM10,O3 and NO2 , with a minor positive deviation than the average value, but the forecast value of heavy pollution was 15% lower. The predictions of O3 and NO2 were significantly negatively deviated, with O3 peak value prediction underestimated and NO2 prediction value low. The 24-hour forecast had the best tendency but the negative bias was the most prominent.

关 键 词：天津 空气质量预报 OPAQ模型 效果评估 

分 类 号：X823[环境科学与工程—环境工程]