黄河内蒙古河段凌汛期槽蓄水增量分析与预测  

Analysis and Forecasting Channel Storage Increment of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia Reach Based on Time Series

作　　者：要永在[1] 于海云[1] 魏学敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古机电职业技术学院水利系,内蒙古呼和浩特010070

出　　处：《人民黄河》2016年第12期62-65,共4页Yellow River

摘　　要：通过分析黄河内蒙古段各水文站多年流量变化规律,采用断面水量平衡法分别计算出2004—2015年各年度凌汛期黄河内蒙古河段石嘴山—巴彦高勒、巴彦高勒—三湖河口、三湖河口—头道拐区间的槽蓄水增量,分析黄河内蒙古段凌汛期槽蓄水增量的变化规律,区间槽蓄水增量均值由大到小的顺序为三湖河口—头道拐河段>巴彦高勒—三湖河口河段>石嘴山—巴彦高勒河段。利用时序分析模型对黄河内蒙古河段2015—2018年各年度凌汛期槽蓄水增量进行预测,槽蓄水增量预测值石嘴山—巴彦高勒区间分别为4.31亿、3.88亿、4.65亿m^3,巴彦高勒—三湖河口区间分别为7.35亿、6.55亿、7.88亿m^3;三湖河口—头道拐区间分别为8.55亿、9.26亿、10.48亿m^3。通过与实测值进行比较,说明模型预测结果具有较高的精度。After analyzing the years flow change rule of each hydrological station on the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia,the calculation method of water balance with river section was used in the three typical sections of Shizuishan-Bayangaole,Bayangaole-Sanhuhekou and Sanhuhekou-Toudaoguai by a quick survey. Through calculating the three different intervals' channel impoundments from 2004 to 2015,it obtained the mean value of channel storage increment of the reach: Sanhuhekou-Toudaoguai > Bayangaole-Sanhuhekou > Shizuishan-Bayangaole. The water storage of a part of Yellow River in Inner Mongolia was predicted based on model of time series analysis. The predictions of water storage with three typical sections from 2015 to 2018 were as follows: Shizuishan-Bayangaole was 431 million m^3,388 million m^3 and 465 million m^3; Bayangaole-Sanhuhekou was 735 million m^3,655 million m^3 and 788 million m^3 and; Sanhuhekou-Toudaoguai was 855 million m^3,926 million m^3 and 1.048 billion m^3. Research on the change of channel storage of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia and trying to predict it were conductive to master water dynamic variation of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia. In addition,this topic can improve the ability of flood control and it is meaningful to prevent the ice flood disaster of the Yellow River in Inner Mongolia. By comparing with the observed values,it shows that the forecasting results of the model have higher precision.

关 键 词：凌汛期 槽蓄水增量 时序分析 预测 黄河内蒙古河段 

分 类 号：P332[天文地球—水文科学] TV882.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]