河南省耕地资源数量变化及驱动因素分析  

Research on Change and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Quantity in Henan Province

作　　者：栗滢超[1,2] 侯雪娜[2] 钱壮志[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学地球科学与资源学院,陕西西安710064 [2]河南农业大学资源与环境学院,河南郑州450002

出　　处：《河南农业科学》2016年第12期67-71,共5页Journal of Henan Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河南省教育厅自然科学重点基金项目(14A630003);河南省科技攻关项目(122102310394);河南省高等学校哲学社会科学研究"三重"重大基金项目(2014-SZZD-28)

摘　　要：了解耕地资源的时空变化过程及趋势有利于促进耕地合理持续利用,对确保区域粮食安全有重要指导意义。采用2000—2012年数据,探讨了河南省耕地数量在时间、空间上的变化特征,运用主成分分析法探讨了耕地数量变化的主要驱动因子,并运用灰色关联法和多元回归法对2013—2025年河南省耕地资源数量进行预测。结果表明,2000—2012年,河南省耕地数量呈现平稳—增加—基本平稳—增加—平稳的特征,人均耕地面积呈现平稳—增加—稍微降低—增加—降低的特征;信阳市、济源市、新乡市、鹤壁市、南阳市的耕地数量相对变化率均大于全省平均水平,分别为3.33、1.73、1.43、1.20、1.12。影响河南省耕地数量的主要因素表现为总人口>客运量>全社会固定资产投资额>GDP>农村人均居住面积>城镇化水平。预测2013—2025年河南省耕地数量呈逐年小幅增加趋势,预计2020年河南省耕地数量为9 782.81 khm2,2025年达11 078.95 khm2。最后,从农村居民点集约利用、低丘缓坡地开发利用、补充耕地工程建设及耕地资源信息系统建设方面提出加强耕地保护的意见和措施。Understanding the change process and trend of cultivated land resource is conducive to promoting rational and sustainable use of arable land,and it is of great significance to ensure regional food security. This paper analyzed the spatial and temporal change characteristics of cultivated land quantity in Henan province using data from 2000 to 2012,discussed the main driving factors of cultivated land quantity change using the principal component analysis,and predicted the number of cultivated land resource from 2013 to 2025 using the grey correlation method and the multiple regression method. The results showed that the quantity of cultivated land presented a stable—increasing—basically stable—increasing—stable characteristics,and the per capita cultivated land area was characterized by steady—increasing—slightly decresing—increasing—decreasing in Henan province. In addition,the relative change rates of cultivated land in Xinyang city,Jiyuan city,Xinxiang city,Hebi city and Nanyang city were greater than the average level of the whole province,which were 3. 33,1. 73,1. 43,1. 20,1. 12 respectively. The order of main factors affecting the quantity change of cultivated land was population > passenger volume > fixed assets investment volume > GDP > rural per capita living space > urbanization level. It was predicted thatthe number of cultivated land would be 9 782. 81 kha in 2020,11 078. 95 kha in 2025. Finally,this paper put forward some suggestions and measures to strengthen the protection of farmland from the aspects of intensive utilization of rural residential land,exploitation and utilization of low hills and gentle slopes,construction of supplementary cultivated land and arable land resources information system.

关 键 词：耕地资源 驱动因素 主成分分析 多元回归分析 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济] F323.211