结构矢量法的模糊故障树重要度分析  

Research on Importance Analysis of Fuzzy Fault Tree Based on Structure Vector

作　　者：许勇[1] 董欢[2] 毕凯 鹿传国[4] 张志峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学防空反导学院 [2]空军工程大学校务部 [3]93293部队 [4]95806部队

出　　处：《空军工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2016年第6期64-69,共6页Journal of Air Force Engineering University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(61601498);国家社科基金(16BGL221)

摘　　要：针对模糊故障树分析中,重要度分析描述复杂、抽象含义不明确以及不利于重要度排序等问题,提出基于结构矢量的重要度分析方法。首先将梯形模糊数抽象为匀质梯形,将梯形模糊数的变化抽象为梯形质心的矢量变化。而后利用质心变化矢量在水平和垂直方向上的分量定义模糊故障树中故障率的变化量、梯形模糊数模糊度的变化量以及故障率的变化率。最后以某型雷达水冷系统故障为顶事件,通过重要度分析验证了所提方法的有效性。Aimed at the problems that the description of importance analysis is complex, abstract conception is uncertain, and these are unfavorable ordering for fuzzy fault tree analysis, a new importance analysis method based on structure vector is proposed. First of all, the trapezoid fuzzy number is abstracted as uni- formity trapezoid and its change is abstracted as the shifty vector of the trapezoid center. And then, the horizontal mapping of shifty vector is used to define the variation of error rate and vary rate of error rate. Meanwhile, the vertical mapping of shifty vector is used to define the irresolute degree of trapezoid fuzzy number. At last, the fault of cooling system of a certain radar is treated as the top event, and the method proposed is proved by importance analysis.

关 键 词：模糊故障树 梯形模糊数 重要度分析 结构矢量 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]