我国超额货币问题的理论与实证分析  

Theoretical and Empirical Analysis on the Problem of Excess Money Stock in China

作　　者：李辉华[1] LI Hui hua(Library, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学图书馆,北京100872

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2016年第6期7-17,共11页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学研究基金青年项目(06CJY032)

摘　　要：该文从金汇兑本位制下马克思关于货币流通量规律的公式入手,对该公式的内容、影响因素等进行了拓展和延伸,并推导出了完全纸币本位制下双经济形态中广义货币M2的需求量的理论公式,然后根据设定的总体回归模型对我国1993～2009年间的相关统计数据进行了计量分析。结果表明,从单个年份来看,有些年份货币确实超发了,但有的年份货币又少发了,若从较长时间段或整体来看,我国并不存在超额货币现象。因此,我们建议：央行在制定货币政策时,不必顾虑那种认为＂我国已经存在较重的货币超发问题＂的流行观点的影响,而应该根据我国实体经济和虚拟经济总规模以及国家发展战略等对货币的需要量,来安排每年的货币投放数量。This article starts with Marx＇s formula of currency circulation In the gold exchange standard system,expanded and extended the content and influence factors of the formula,And derived the theoretical formula of the demand for the generalized money M2 in the dual economy form under the full paper money standard system,Then has carried on the quantitative analysis on China＇s 1993-2009 years of relevant statistical data in accordance with the set of the overall regression model. The results show that,in a single year,the full paper money M2 supply is too much in some years,but it is too low in some years. If from a longer period of time or the whole point of view,there is no phenomenon of excess money stock in China.

关 键 词：完全纸币 货币需求量 实体经济 虚拟经济 超额货币 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]