本币升值对中国、德国、日本宏观经济影响的比较研究  

A Comparative Study on the Impact of the Domestic Currency Appreciation on the Macro Economy of China,Germany and Japan

作　　者：李伟东[1] 袁申国[1] LI Wei - dong YUAN Shen - guo(School of Economics and Trade, Guangdong University of Foreign Studies, Guangzhou 510006, China })

机构地区：[1]广东外语外贸大学经济贸易学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《财经理论研究》2016年第6期68-80,共13页Journal of Finance and Economics Theory

基　　金：教育部人文社科一般项目(11YJA790200)

摘　　要：人民币升值之路浩荡而坎坷,汇率变动会对国内资源配置、国际收支平衡等产生重大影响,面对本币升值的政策应对是国家宏观经济管理能力的重要体现。先行的德国马克和日本日元升值的政策应对可为中国人民币改革管理提供宝贵的经验。本文详细比较了中国、德国、日本三国货币升值背景,压力来源及升值期间宏观经济表现,运用三个国家宏观经济数据实证分析币值升值对宏观经济的影响,得出结论:本币升值不利于三个国家出口且会产生通货紧缩效应,经济增长所受汇率影响各有不同,汇率对我国经济增长贡献度最大,德国次之,日本最少。The road of RMB appreciation is mighty and bumpy; Exchange rate changes will have a significant impact on the allocation of domestic resources,the balance of payments and so on. Facing the currency appreciation,policy response is an important manifestation of the national macroeconomic management capacity. The policy response of the first German Mark and Japanese yen appreciation can provide valuable experience for the management and reform of RMB. This paper compares the background,source of pressure of currency appreciation and Macroeconomic performance during the period of appreciation in China,Germany and Japan in detail,Makes an empirical analysis of the impact of the appreciation of the currency value on the macro economy by using three national macroeconomic data. It indicates that The appreciation of the currency is not conducive to the export of three countries and will have a deflation effect. Economic growth is affected exchange rate by different degrees. The contribution of Exchange rate to China＇s economic growth is the largest,followed by Germany,Japan,at least.

关 键 词：本币升值 比较研究 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]