基于TOPKAPI模型的黑河上游径流模拟研究  

Runoff Simulation for the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on TOPKAPI Model

作　　者：刘玉环[1] 刘志雨[2] 李致家[1] 黄鹏年[1] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]水利部水文局,北京100053

出　　处：《水力发电》2016年第12期20-23,118,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(9112506);水利部公益项目(201501022)

摘　　要：为了进一步完善黑河上游区域近几年的水文循环研究,采用基于物理基础的分布式水文模型TOPKAPI模型,对1998年~2007年的日径流、月径流过程分别进行模拟研究;并使用径流深误差Re、Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数及决定系数R^2三种评价指标对结果进行分析。黑河上游流域的日径流过程模拟径流深误差合格率在率定期和验证期合格率均为100%;Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数分别为0.82、0.77;相关系数R^2分别为0.84、0.81。月径流过程率定期和验证期的径流深误差Re均为-0.36%,模拟径流量相对偏小;效率系数E也均为0.81,相关系数R^2分别为0.85、0.89。结果表明,TOPKAPI模型可以较好地模拟黑河上游流域的日径流及月径流过程,有良好的适用性。In order to make the recent hydrological cycle study of the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin more perfect, a physical distributed hydrological model TOPKAPI is chosen to simulate the daily runoff and monthly runoff from 1998 to 2007. The simulation results are estimated by relative error of runoff Re, Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient E and relative coefficient R2. The results show that： （a） the Re qualified rate of daily runoff is 100% in calibration and validation periods, the E of two periods are O. 82 and O. 77 respectively, and the R2 are 0.84 and 0.81 respectively; （b） the Re of monthly runoff in calibration and validation periods are all -0. 36%, the E are all 0. 81, and the R2 are 0.85 and 0.89 respectively. It shows that the TOPKAPI Model can be successfully used to simulate the runoff of Heihe River Basin and the model performs excellent in the daily runoff and monthly runoff with good applicability.

关 键 词：径流模拟 TOPKAPI模型 黑河上游 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]