龙羊峡水库汛期分期及其合理性检验研究  

Division of Flood Seasonal Phases for Longyangxia Reservoir and the Rationality Test of Research Results

作　　者：罗赟[1] 肖开提.阿不都热依木 董增川[1] 管西柯[1] 张翔宇[1] 许波刘 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]新疆乌鲁木齐水文水资源勘测局,新疆乌鲁木齐830000

出　　处：《水力发电》2016年第12期24-28,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41471014);国家社会科学基金资助项目(2012&ZD214)

摘　　要：为解决黄河上游龙羊峡水库防洪与兴利之间的矛盾，采用水文特征值统计法、矢量统计法、模糊分析法及成因分析法等方法对龙羊峡水库1956年-2014年的洪水资料进行汛期分期计算。通过对比分析，确定龙羊峡水库的主汛期为6月23日-9月1日。为避免以往研究者对汛期分期成果进行合理性和真实性检验存在的一些逻辑漏洞和理论缺陷，采用改进的Cunderlik法对龙羊峡水库汛期分期结果的合理性进行检验。检验结果表明，龙羊峡水库汛期分期结果合理有效。In order to solve the contradiction between beneficial utilization and flood control of Longyangxia Reservoir, the flood seasonality of Longyangxia Reservoir are calculated by using several methods based on flood data of reservoir from 1956 to 2014. The used methods include hydrological eigenvalue method, vector statistic method, fuzzy analysis method and genetic analysis method. The results show that the main flood season of Longyangxia Reservoir is from June 23 to September 1. In order to avoid some logic loopholes and theoretical flaws in past researches of rationality test of flood seasonality, the improved Cunderlik method is used to verify the results of flood seasonality, The test result shows that the result of flood seasonality for Longyangxia Reservoir is reasonable and effective.

关 键 词：汛期分期 模糊统计分析法 合理性检验 改进Cunderlik法 龙羊峡水库 

分 类 号：TV122.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]