正交设计和均匀设计在引水隧洞施工工期敏感性分析中的对比研究  

Comparative Study on Sensitivity Analysis of Water-Conveying Tunnel Construction Duration with Orthogonal Design Method and Uniform Design Method

作　　者：赵梦琦[1] 王晓玲[1] 区丽雯 刘震[1] 余佳[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072

出　　处：《水力发电》2016年第12期69-72,共4页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金项目(51321065);天津市应用基础与前沿技术研究计划项目(14JCQNJC09100)

摘　　要：引水隧洞工程施工中参数数量多、取值变化大,参数的任何微小改变都有引起施工工期波动的可能性,因此有必要从施工参数角度对隧洞工期进行敏感性分析,以实现施工组织计划更科学的制定和施工现场更有序的管理。目前,对引水隧洞施工工期进行敏感性分析的研究主要采用的分析方法有正交设计法和均匀设计法,结合具体工程实例,对比运用两种不同方法对引水隧洞施工工期进行敏感性分析的运算特点,结果表明:两种方法在试验设计、数据分析、结果偏差三个方面存在区别,在实际分析中应根据分析需要选择合适的分析方法。There are many factors ranging in water-conveying tunnel construction project widely, and any small change in the parameters could cause the possibility of construction duration fluctuations. Thus, in order to make more scientific construction organization planning and more orderly management of construction site, it is necessary to carry out sensitivity analysis of water- conveying tunnel construction duration from the angle of construction parameters. At present, the main methods of construction duration analysis are orthogonal design method and uniform design method. Referring to the project case in practice, the calculation characteristics of sensitivity analysis for water-conveying tunnel construction duration with two different methods are compared. The results show that these two methods have differences in design, data analysis and result deviation. Thus, it is needed to choose an appropriate method according to practical analysis requirements.

关 键 词：引水隧洞 工期敏感性分析 正交设计 均匀设计 对比研究 

分 类 号：TV512[水利工程—水利水电工程]