中国典型资源型地区能源消耗与经济增长动态关系研究  

Study on the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth in typical resource-based regions of China

作　　者：窦睿音[1] 刘学敏[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学资源学院,北京100875

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2016年第12期164-170,共7页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划课题"不同类型城市可持续发展能力辨识集成技术研究"(批准号:2013BAJ04B01)之子课题"我国城市可持续发展评估的基础框架构建"(批准号:2013BAJ04B01-2)

摘　　要：随着国内外经济环境的复杂变化,中国资源型地区经济结构转型困难加剧。对资源型地区能源消耗与经济增长之间的关系进行研究,可以帮助该类型地区厘清经济发展过程中的能源消耗现状,对于优化资源型地区经济转型之路具有重要现实意义。本文以中国典型资源型地区山西省、黑龙江省、吉林省、辽宁省为例,选取1985—2014年数据,利用格兰杰因果分析对研究区能源消耗与经济增长之间的动态关系进行了研究。研究结果表明:1山西省表现出从经济增长到能源消耗的单向因果关系,黑龙江省与辽宁省表现出从能源消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系,吉林省表现出能源消耗与经济增长的双向因果关系;2山西省、黑龙江省、辽宁省都表现出从煤炭消耗到经济增长的单向因果关系,吉林省表现出煤炭消耗到经济增长的双向因果关系;3典型资源型地区都表现出从能源消耗到煤炭消耗的单向因果关系。4资源型地区转型务必将落实供给侧改革摆在发展首位。山西省应在提高能源使用效率的基础上选择集约化、低载能的新兴产业,黑龙江省与辽宁省应加大新能源的开发与产业化进程,产业应向高端装备制造业、现代服务业等产品附加值高、能源消耗少、环境污染小的产业转型,吉林省的重工业发展要以油气能源替代煤炭资源,在降低产业能耗的同时加速扶持已经相对成熟的替代产业,减少产业转型对于地区经济产生的负面影响。The development of economic growth shows complex change in domestic and abroad, it is more difficult for economic transformation in China＇ s resource-based regions. The analysis on the relation between energy consumption and economic growth revealed the energy consumption change in resource-based regions during the process of economic development, which had important and practical significance for optimizing economic transition. This paper took China＇ s typical resource-based regions as study areas including Shanxi Province, Heilongjiang Province, Jilin Province, and Liaoning Province, and by using historical data in 1985--2014, and used Granger Causality analysis, it analyzed dynamic relations between energy consumption and economic development in those provinces. The conclusions were as follows：（1）there was unidirectional causality from economic growth to energy consumption in Shanxi Provinces. There is unidirectional causality from energy consumption to economic growth in Heilongjiang Province and Liaoning Province. There is bidirectional causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Jilin province. （2）There is unidirectional causality from coal consumption to economic growth in Shanxi Province, Heilongjiang Province and Liaoning Province. There is bidirectional causality between coal consumption from economic growth in Jilin Province. （3）There is unidirectional causality from energy consumption to coal consumption in typical resource-based regions. （4）At last, according to the different study results, we proposed different strategies to solve the energy structure transformation and industrial transformation for different study areas. It is necessary for the resource-based provinces to put the supply-side reform in the first place. Shanxi Province should choose the intensive, low-energy carriers in emerging industries based on energy efficiency. Heilongjiang Province and Liaoning Province should increase the industrialization of new energy development; besides, the industria

关 键 词：能源消耗 经济增长 格兰杰因果分析 典型资源型地区 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]