基于离散灰色预测模型与人工神经网络混合智能模型的时尚销售预测  

Hybrid intelligent model for fashion sales forecasting based on discrete grey forecasting model and artificial neural network

作　　者：刘卫校[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江理工大学科学计算与软件工程实验室,杭州310018

出　　处：《计算机应用》2016年第12期3378-3384,共7页journal of Computer Applications

摘　　要：时尚销售预测对零售领域十分重要,准确的销售情况预测有助于大幅度提高最终时尚销售利润。针对目前时尚销售预测数据量有限并且数据波动大导致难以进行准确预测的问题,提出了一种结合人工神经网络(ANN)算法和离散灰色预测模型(DGM(1,1))算法的混合智能预测算法。该算法通过关联度分析得到关联度大的影响变量,在利用DGM(1,1)+ANN预测之后,引入二次残差的思想,将实际销售数据与DGM(1,1)+ANN预测结果的残差加入影响变量利用ANN进行第二次残差预测。最后通过真实的时尚销售数据验证算法预测的可行性及准确性。实验结果表明,该算法在时尚销售数据的预测中,预测平均绝对百分误差(MAPE)在25%左右,预测性能优于自回归积分滑动平均模型(ARIMA)、扩展极限学习机(EELM)、DGM(1,1)、DGM(1,1)+ANN算法,相较于以上几种算法平均预测精度大约提高8个百分点。所提混合智能算法可用于时尚销售即时预测,且能够大幅度提高销售的效益。Fashion sales forecasting is very important for the retail industry and accurate sales forecasting can improve the final fashion sales profits greatly. The current fashion sales forecast data is limited and the data volatility makes it harder to accurately forecast. In order to solve the problems, a new hybrid intelligent prediction algorithm comprising Artificial Neural Network （ANN） and Discrete Grey forecasting Model （ DGM（ 1, 1） ） was proposed. The Correlation Analysis （CA） was used to get important influence variables with large correlation and DGM（ 1, 1） ＋ ANN were used to forecast the sales data. Then the residual of real sales data and the forecasting results of DGM（ 1, 1） ＋ ANN was added into influence variables for forecasting the second residual by using ANN and adopting an idea of secondary residual. Finally, the experiments based on real data sets of fashion sales were conducted to evaluate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed hybrid algorithm. The experimental results show that, in forecasting fashion sales data, the forecasting Mean Absolute Percent Error （MAPE） of the proposed algorithm is about 25%. The forecast accuracy has greatly improved, compared to AutoregRessive Integrated Moving Average model （ARIMA）, Extended Extreme Learning Machine （EELM）, DGM（ 1, 1）, DGM（ 1, 1） ＋ ANN algorithm, the average forecasting accuracy is improved about 8 percentage points. The proposed hybrid intelligent algorithm for fashion sales can be used for real-time sales forecasting and improve sales greatly.

关 键 词：时尚销售预测 神经网络算法 离散灰色模型 关联度分析 自回归积分滑动平均模型 

分 类 号：TP183[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]