1952-2015年云南省流行性乙型脑炎发病季节性特征分析  

Seasonal distribution of Japanese encephalitis of Yunnan,1952-2015

作　　者：朱秋艳[1] 胡筱莛[2] 孔毅[2] 张磊[1] 丁峥嵘[2] 

机构地区：[1]昆明医科大学,云南昆明650022 [2]云南省疾病预防控制中心,云南昆明650022

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2016年第23期4236-4239,共4页Modern Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的 探讨云南省不同免疫策略时期流行性乙型脑炎（简称乙脑）发病的时间分布特征,为乙脑的防控提供理论依据。方法 采用集中度及圆形分布法分析云南省1952-2015年的乙脑发病资料,用Watson-Williams检验比较两个及多个角均数。结果 1952-2015年云南省共报告47 885例乙脑病例,死亡6 569例,乙脑的年均发病率为1.79/10万,病死率为13.72%;疫苗使用前、疫苗推广期、免疫规划期乙脑发病的集中度M值依次为0.657、0.594、0.864,3个时期乙脑发病的平均角依次为284.05°、243.27°、209.42°,高峰日依次为9月9日、9月4日、7月30日,流行高峰期依次为7月4日～11月14日、7月18日～10月20日、7月3日～9月1日;不同阶段乙脑发病的高峰日有显著差异（P〈0.001）。结论 云南省乙脑发病存在明显的季节性高峰期,随着乙脑疫苗的推广及使用,乙脑发病率逐渐下降,发病高峰日提前,高峰期缩短。Objective To understand the seasonal characteristics at different stages of immunization strategy in Yunnan Province,and to provide theoretical basis for the control and prevention of Japanese encephalitis （JE）. Methods Use concentration ratio and circular distribution method to analyze the data of JE during 1952 -2015 in Yunnan,and use Watson - Williams test to compare two or more angles. Results Totally 47885 people in Yunnan Province were reported from 1952 to 2015 ,and 6569 cases had died. The average annual morbidity was 1.79/100,000, and the fatality rate was 13.72%. The M values of concentration ratio were 0. 657,0. 594 and 0. 864 at stages of no vaccine, Japanese encephalitis vaccine （JEV） promotion and JEV immunization program,respectively. The average angles of three different stages were 284. 05° ,243.27° and 209.42°, respectively. The peak day of the disease in three stages were on September 9th, September 4th and July 7th ,and the duration of epidemic peak was from July 7th to November 14th,from July 18th to October 20th and from July 3rd to September 1 st,respectively. There were significant differences among the peak day at different sections （ P 〈 0. 001 ）. Conclusion The incidence of JE presents obvious seasonal distribution in Yunnan. With JEV using and popularizing,the incidence is gradually decreasing, the peak day has been in advance and the duration of peak has been shortened.

关 键 词：流行性乙型脑炎(乙脑) 发病 季节特征 

分 类 号：R181.23[医药卫生—流行病学]