基于马尔科夫过程的桥梁耐久性预测模型研究  

Research on Forecasting Durability Models of Bridge Based on Markov Processes

作　　者：哈娜[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省交通高等专科学校,辽宁沈阳110122

出　　处：《辽宁省交通高等专科学校学报》2016年第5期1-4,共4页Journal of Liaoning Provincial College of Communications

摘　　要：桥梁耐久性预测不仅可以揭示桥梁在整个使用期间耐久性退化过程和变化趋势,而且是采取合理维修加固方案的依据。合理的耐久性预测模型保证了桥梁维持在较高的服务水平上,降低了重大安全事故发生的概率,在经济和社会方面都具有重要意义。本文结合马尔科夫过程的特点,建立桥梁耐久性退化模型,总结模型退化步骤,并以具体实例进行计算,得到期望等级与时间的关系曲线,为确定合理的维修加固方案和剩余寿命预测奠定理论基础。Forecasting the durability of bridge can not only reveal degrading process and change trend during the whole service period, but also can be the basis of adopting the correct maintenance and strengthening schemes. The correct forecasting models of durability can keep the bridge on the high service and reduce the happening probability of important safety accidents, which hold an important significance in society and economy. Combining the characteristics of Markov process, the degraded durability models of bridge were built by the article. The steps of models were summarized. And the models were computed by specific examples. The relation curve between the expected levels and time was obtained. All this can lay a theoretical foundation on determining the correct repair and reinforced project and residual life prediction.

关 键 词：连续时间 马尔科夫过程 桥梁 耐久性 预测 实例 

分 类 号：U445.7[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程] U446[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]