中国货币政策传导利率渠道的实证分析  

Empirical Analysis of the Interest Transmission Channel of Monetary Policy in China

作　　者：肖硕[1,2] 周俊桃[2] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学五道口金融学院,北京100083 [2]国家开发银行,北京100031

出　　处：《浙江金融》2016年第10期16-24,共9页Zhejiang Finance

摘　　要：随着利率市场化的推进,中国货币政策框架面临由数量调控到价格调控的转变。本文通过构建向量自回归(VAR)和向量误差修正(VEC)模型,实证检验了中国货币政策工具(存款基准利率和公开市场操作)、货币市场利率和零售市场(贷款市场和理财产品市场)利率之间的长期均衡和动态响应关系,为理解中国货币政策传导利率渠道提供了经验证据。实证结果表明,现阶段中国货币政策传导利率渠道以通过存贷款基准利率直接调控零售市场利率的方式为主,通过公开市场操作的间接调控渠道尚未完全建立。预计未来一段时期内,存贷款基准利率仍将是重要的货币政策工具。With the interest liberalization, the regulatory mechanism of monetary policy has been changed from volume to price control. We design VAR and VEC model to confirm the relation between monetary policies, interest rate of the money market and the retail market. The result of the empirical analysis prove that the deposit and loan base rates are still the main way of the interest channel of monetary policy, the indirect control channel through open market operation has not come effect yet.

关 键 词：利率传导机制 存款基准利率 公开市场操作 

分 类 号：F822.0[经济管理—财政学]