Forecasting of China's natural gas production and its policy implications  

作　　者：Shi-Qun Li Bao-Sheng Zhang Xu Tang 

机构地区：[1]School of Business Administration,China University of Petroleum

出　　处：《Petroleum Science》2016年第3期592-603,共12页石油科学（英文版）

基　　金：the National Social Science Funds of China (13&ZD159);the National Natural Science Foundation of China (71303258, 71373285);MOE (Ministry of Education in China) Project of Humanities and Social Sciences (13YJC630148);Science Foundation of China University of Petroleum, Beijing (ZX20150130) for sponsoring this joint research

摘　　要：With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.With the vigorous promotion of energy conservation and implementation of clean energy strategies,China＇s natural gas industry has entered a rapid development phase,and natural gas is playing an increasingly important role in China＇s energy structure.This paper uses a Generalized Weng model to forecast Chinese regional natural gas production,where accuracy and reasonableness compared with other predictions are enhanced by taking remaining estimated recoverable resources as a criterion.The forecast shows that China＇s natural gas production will maintain a rapid growth with peak gas of 323 billion cubic meters a year coming in 2036;in 2020,natural gas production will surpass that of oil to become a more important source of energy.Natural gas will play an important role in optimizing China＇s energy consumption structure and will be a strategic replacement of oil.This will require that exploration and development of conventional natural gas is highly valued and its industrial development to be reasonably planned.As well,full use should be made of domestic and international markets.Initiative should also be taken in the exploration and development of unconventional and deepwater gas,which shall form a complement to the development of China＇s conventional natural gas industry.

关 键 词：Natural gas Production forecast Generalized Weng model Energy structure Policy implication 

分 类 号：F426.22[经济管理—产业经济] TE328[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]