滁州市农业生态环境质量动态评价及预测  

Dynamic Assessment and Prediction on Quality of Agricultural Eco-environment in Chuzhou

作　　者：房莎莎[1] 王妮[1,2] 孙杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]滁州学院地理信息与旅游学院,安徽滁州239000 [2]安徽省地理信息集成应用协同创新中心,安徽滁州239000

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2016年第31期52-57,共6页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201510377014);安徽高校省级自然科学研究项目重点项目(KJ2016A531);滁州学院大学生创新创业训练计划项目(2015CXXL036);安徽省大学生创新创业训练计划项目(201510377032)

摘　　要：[目的]客观准确地评价和预测滁州市农业生态质量状况及发展趋势。[方法]选取滁州市农业生态环境质量评价指标,运用主成分分析法对评价指标进行筛选,建立农业生态环境质量综合评价模型,采用灰色系统GM(1,1)模型对农业生态环境质量状况进行预测。[结果]滁州市农业生态环境质量长期处于III级,且波动幅度较小;农业生态环境保护指标和农业环境污染指标对滁州市农业生态环境质量的影响较大。[结论]滁州市农业生态环境质量有很大改善空间,人类活动对农业生态环境质量的影响显著。[Objective]The study amied to evaluate and forecast the status and development trend of agricultural ecological quality objectively and accurately of Chuzhou City. [Method]Selection the index of agricultural ecological environmental quality evaluation and screening evaluation indexes by using principal component analysis. Established the comprehensive evaluation model of agricultural ecological environment quality and and the GM（ 1,1） grey system theory model was applied to predict the evolution trend of agricultural eco-environment. [Result]The agricultural ecological environment quality of chuzhou in the＂III＂for a long time and less volatility; The index of agricultural ecological environment protection and agricultural environmental pollution index has great influence on the quality of agricultural ecological environment in Chuzhou city. [Conclusion]The Chuzhou agricultural ecological environmental quality is still great rising space and human activities have an significant influences on the quality of agricultural ecological environment.

关 键 词：生态农业 农业生态环境质量 滁州市 

分 类 号：S181.3[农业科学—农业基础科学]