保障性住房能够促进人口流动吗?——基于省际人口流动的引力模型分析  

Can Indemnificatory Housing Promote Population Flow?—A Gravity Model Analysis Based on the Inter-provincial Population Flow

作　　者：毛丰付[1] 王建生[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2016年第11期86-95,共10页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273235);中国博士后基金项目(2014M550942);钱江人才计划项目(QJC1302014)

摘　　要：人口流动是推动我国工业化和城市化进程的重要力量,住房是农业转移人口城市融合的必要条件。文章根据我国人口普查的省际人口流动数据,基于引力模型分析了人口流动的影响因素和机制,重点分析了保障性住房对省际人口流动的影响。实证结果发现,保障性住房对人口流动有显著影响,一省保障性住房竣工面积每增加1%,流入人口数量增加约为0.3%。从地区差异看,东部地区保障性住房建设对人口流入的促进作用更大,而中西部地区保障性住房建设体系不够完善,对人口流动的影响有限。研究认为,各地区加大保障性住房建设面积,扩大保障性住房的保障范围,减轻企业负担,既可以为城镇人口流入和社会融合提供新动力,也是"供给侧改革"的应有之义。Population flow is an important force to promote the process of industrialization and urbanization in China. Housingis a necessary condition for the integration of agricultural transfer population. Based on the inter-provincial population flow data of China＇s population census,this paper analyzes the influential factors and mechanism of population flow based on thegravity model,and focuses on the analysis of the impact of indemnificatory housing on inter-provincial population flow. Theempirical results show that indemnificatory housing has a significant impact on population flow,the inflow of population willincrease about 0.3% by increasing 1% of the completion area of indemnificatory housing in a province;From the regional dif-ferences,the construction of indemnificatory housing in the east regions has a greater effect on the inflow of population,whilethe construction of indemnificatory housing in the central and west regions has a limited impact on population flow because theindemnificatory housing system is not perfect. The paper argues that all regions should increase the construction area of indem-nificatory housing,expand the scope of the protection of indemnificatory housing,and reduce the burden on enterprises. Itcan provide a new impetus for the urban population flow and social integration,but also provide the＂supply side reform＂.

关 键 词：保障性住房 人口流动 引力模型 供给侧改革 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] F241