郑州市轨道交通2号线客流预测相关问题研究  

Study on Passenger Flow Forecast of Metro Line 2 in Zhengzhou

作　　者：王亦军[1] 董奇志[1] 牛红霞[2] 王丽红[3] 

机构地区：[1]郑州铁路职业技术学院科研外事处,河南郑州451460 [2]郑州铁路职业技术学院运输管理系,河南郑州451460 [3]郑州铁路职业技术学院机车车辆学院,河南郑州451460

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2016年第12期85-90,共6页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：河南省科技发展计划课题(162400410164)

摘　　要：为了科学准确地把握郑州轨道交通2号线的客流特征,从全日客流、早晚高峰客流、换乘客流等技术指标进行客流预测,综合比较分析预测结果的关键参数并论证对车辆选型、设计系统运输能力、列车运行交路等运营方案的影响。结果表明,郑州轨道交通2号线沿线客流成熟稳定,初期、近期客流增长较快,远期增长较慢。尽管郑州轨道交通2号线预测客流在时空上分布很不均衡,但客流预测的抗风险能力较强。The paper takes into account major technical parameters - passenger flow for the day, that for rush hours and that for transfer - in the passenger flow forecast to have a scientific and accurate reading on the passenger flow of Metro No.2 in Zhengzhou province. The paper compares and analyzes the key parameters of the forecast, and looks into their influence to vehicle selection, system transportation capacity and train operation route. The results show that, the passenger flow of Zhengzhou Metro Line 2 is stable with the passenger flow rising rapidly at the preliminary stage and in the near future while such momentum is expected to slow down in the long run. The results promises great anti-risk performance, despite of the uneven space-time distribution of passenger flow forecast of Zhengzhou Metro Line 2.

关 键 词：轨道交通 客流预测 客流特征 

分 类 号：U239.5[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]