对当前低通胀问题的分析与思考  

Analysis and Exploration of the Current Low Inflation Issue

作　　者：常欣[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京100836

出　　处：《学术界》2016年第12期13-31,共19页Academics

摘　　要：通胀处于低水平且不断下降已成为全球性问题。中国经济自2012年出现明显减速以来,反映一般价格水平、消费者价格水平和生产者价格水平的各项价格指数也呈现低位运行的态势。从低通胀的影响因素看,主要包括四个方面:一是需求面因素的债务—通缩陷阱与资产价格下降—通缩陷阱;二是供给面因素的生产效率差异;三是另一供给面因素的国际大宗商品价格传导;四是货币面因素的资本外流压力下外汇占款下降带来的流动性紧缩效应。鉴于长期低通胀将会对整个经济形成负面影响,需要采取有针对性的治理举措:一是有效化解产能过剩问题,防止退出不足和过度进入两种倾向;二是着力防范过度负债问题,重点发展股权性融资并矫正二元融资结构。Declining price level and low inflation have become a global issue.In China,since the remarkable slowdown of the economy since 2012,the general price,the consumer price and the producer price have all stayed at low levels.There are generally four drivers for the low inflation.First is the debt-deflation trap and asset price decline-deflation trap from the demand side.Second is the efficiency difference from the supply side.Third is the global commodity price transmission from the supply side.Fourth is the liquidity contraction effect caused by the decline of foreign exchange asset held by the Monetary Authority under the capital outflow pressure from the money-supply side.Considering persistently low inflation may have a negative effect on the whole economy we need to take corresponding measures.First is to effectively solve the over capacity problem,avoiding the tendency of incomplete exit and over entry.Second is to try to prevent the problem of excessive debt,focusing on the development of equity financing and correcting the dual financing structure.

关 键 词：低通胀 债务-通缩陷阱 资产价格下降-通缩陷阱 产能过剩 通缩压力跨境外溢 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]